Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T14:39:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
50 0x50bc…0b2f crypto 1191 markets active 6h ago coverage 55d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$72 (-1%) realized −$72 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate51%603W / 588L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day31.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2,452
7 days−$2,314
14 days−$1,984
30 days−$1,421
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$263
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-14.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 603 -83.8% -85.3% 9% 6% -84.6%
≤30d 965 -28.8% -35.6% 41% 36% -38.2%
≤90d 1191 -5.8% -14.8% 51% 46% -13.5%
all 1191 -5.8% -14.8% 51% 46% -13.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover31.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.8% 46% -13.5%
10% ← realistic here -22.9% 41% -21.8%
15% -30.4% 35% -29.3%
20% -37.2% 31% -36.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +74% → late -85% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$5 · ×0.88 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

55d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$72
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses603 / 588
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1191 / 1191
History coverage55d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day31.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1191 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $2 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $4 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $5 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $2 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $5 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $2 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $3 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $2 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $5 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $2 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $4 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $5 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $2 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $5 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $2 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $3 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $4 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $1 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $1 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 3¢ $1 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $1 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $1 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 4¢ $1 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $1 33h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2931 history records