Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T05:49:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
50 0x50bf…030f other 45 markets active 2h ago coverage 486d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$9 (+1%) realized +$9 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +45% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +31% what you keep after slip
Net edge+31%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate50%22W / 22L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$12
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 61% +$12
other 20% −$1
politics 6% −$1
weather 4% −$1
sports 4% $0
crypto 3% +$1
tech 2% −$1
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)+31.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.2% -9.7% 33% 0% -9.1%
≤30d 11 +183.6% +156.6% 55% 18% -6.6%
≤90d 13 +155.1% +130.8% 54% 15% -7.0%
all 44 +44.8% +31.0% 50% 9% -8.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +31.0% 9% -8.3%
10% +18.5% 5% -17.1%
15% +7.0% 5% -25.1%
20% -3.5% 5% -32.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 63% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
82% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +45% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late +93% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.15 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.81 per $1 lost it wins $1.81
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

486d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$9
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses22 / 22
Open positions1
Markets (closed)44 / 45
History coverage486d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 44 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Yes 11¢ 12¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 20 $36 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 18 $5 $0 -2%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 17 $47 $0 +1%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 25 $25 +$4 +14%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 25 $64 $0 +1%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 24 $14 +$1 +6%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 24 $51 +$7 +14%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 24 $37 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? May 23 $1 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 21 $37 $0 -0%
Will Alberta join the US? May 21 $34 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 20 $1 $0 -3%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? May 19 $40 $0 +0%
Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July? Dec 09 $2 $0 +4%
Will H win the most seats in the next Norwegian parliamentary election Jun 25 $6 $0 +0%
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on June 30? Jun 15 $11 $0 +2%
Will Vitinha win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jun 15 $6 $0 -1%
Will George Russell finish second in the 2025 Drivers Championship? Jun 14 $6 $0 +0%
Bitcoin above $103,000 on June 13? Jun 14 $5 +$1 +13%
Will Keir Starmer be the first leader out in 2025? Jun 12 $6 $0 +1%
Will Borussia Dortmund win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jun 11 $5 $0 -0%
Will Trump sell 101-1k Gold Cards in 2025? Jun 11 $5 $0 +0%
Will Hikaru Nakamura win the 2025 Norway Chess tournament? Jun 07 $5 $0 +2%
Will Ousmane Dembele win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jun 06 $6 −$1 -14%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2025 World Series? Jun 05 $5 $0 +0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 National League Championship? Jun 04 $1 $0 -5%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $100-150b in federal spending in 2025? Jun 03 $6 $0 -0%
Will Lee Jae-myung win between 53% and 55% of the vote in the South Ko Jun 02 $6 −$1 -23%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jun 01 $7 $0 +0%
Will Dan Trifu be the next Mayor of Bucharest? May 30 $8 $0 -0%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before June? May 29 $7 $0 +2%
Will the Houston Texans win Super Bowl 2026? May 28 $7 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? May 22 $7 $0 -1%
Will Johannes Kaiser win the Chilean presidential election? May 21 $7 $0 +1%
Will reconciliation bill be passed by June 30? May 20 $7 $0 -2%
Will 'Delicious in Dungeon' win Crunchyroll Anime of the Year 2025? May 20 $7 $0 +3%
Will Elena Lasconi win the Romanian presidential election? May 19 $2 $0 +1%
Will Victor Ponta win the Romanian presidential election? May 19 $5 $0 +10%
Will Jose Tolentino de Mendonca be the next pope? May 10 $2 $0 +1%
Will xAI have the top AI model on April 30? Apr 24 $2 −$1 -56%
Will Atletico Madrid win La Liga? Mar 22 $9 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 47-48°F on March 4? Mar 03 $16 −$7 -45%
Sharks vs. Sabres Mar 03 $16 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 27-28°F on February 20? Mar 03 $10 +$6 +61%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 25¢ $8 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 25¢ $19 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 25¢ $9 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 25¢ $36 1h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $38 19h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $9 19h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $47 24h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $10 27h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $4 27h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $16 30h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes $5 38h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes $5 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $35 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $12 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $47 2d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL Yes 23¢ $28 25d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL Yes 20¢ $1 25d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY Yes 20¢ $25 25d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL No 73¢ $24 25d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY No 73¢ $24 25d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 70¢ $15 26d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 66¢ $14 26d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 53¢ $19 26d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 35¢ $8 26d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 35¢ $4 26d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $8 26d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $30 26d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $37 27d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $1 27d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $1 27d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.46 · official $0.46 (match) · 131 history records