Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T14:47:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
50 0x50c3…ace1 sports 648 markets active 1h ago coverage 70d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 69d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$8,370 (-2%) realized −$8,571 · open +$201
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -35% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -46% what you keep after slip
Net edge-46%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%314W / 627L
Whale WR60%big bets
Drawdown30%max
Avg bet$559per market
Trades / day12.7pace
Fees−$5,230est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$5,409now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 70d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$41,441
other 0% −$240
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-41.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 395 -91.9% -92.6% 4% 4% -12.3%
≤30d 586 -54.7% -59.0% 23% 23% +8.7%
≤90d 941 -34.9% -41.1% 33% 33% +2.4%
all 941 -34.9% -41.1% 33% 33% +2.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -41.1% 33% +2.4%
10% -46.8% 33% -7.4%
15% -51.9% 33% -16.3%
20% -56.6% 32% -24.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +13% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -35% · $-wt +13% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 60% (≥$597) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -1% → late -69% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$496 vs −$187 · ×2.66 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.33 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

70d coverage
Net worth$5,409
Realized−$8,571
Unrealized+$201
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses314 / 627
Whale WR (big bets)60%
Est. fees paid−$5,230
Open positions9
Markets (closed)941 / 648
History coverage70d ⚠
Avg bet$559
Trades / day12.7
Drawdown30%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 941 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees: O/U 8.5 Over 50¢ 55¢ $750 $818 +$68 (+9%)
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 7.5 Over 55¢ 58¢ $660 $702 +$42 (+6%)
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 12.5 Under 55¢ 56¢ $660 $678 +$18 (+3%)
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 7.5 Over 52¢ 56¢ $624 $666 +$42 (+7%)
Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 6.5 Over 51¢ 50¢ $612 $606 −$6 (-1%)
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 8.5 Over 49¢ 50¢ $588 $606 +$18 (+3%)
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5) New York Mets 53¢ 55¢ $589 $605 +$17 (+3%)
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies New York Mets 36¢ 38¢ $400 $417 +$17 (+4%)
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 7.5 Over 52¢ 50¢ $325 $311 −$14 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 491 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Spurs (-8.5) Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. New York Mets: O/U 7.5 Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Payton Pritchard: Assists O/U 5.5 Jun 21 $4 −$4 -100%
Oregon Ducks vs. Illinois Fighting Illini: O/U 146.5 Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Eastern Illinois Panthers vs. SIUE Cougars: O/U 127.5 Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Texas Tech Red Raiders vs. Iowa State Cyclones: O/U 146.5 Jun 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Iona Gaels vs. Canisius Golden Griffins: O/U 136.5 Jun 21 $4 −$4 -100%
Pittsburgh Panthers vs. Stanford Cardinal: O/U 136.5 Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Clippers vs. Lakers: O/U 226.5 Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
BNP Paribas Open: Ben Shelton vs Learner Tien Jun 21 $9 −$9 -100%
Spread: Auburn Tigers (-9.5) Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: Arkansas State Red Wolves (-8.5) Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: Illinois Fighting Illini (-18.5) Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Pistons vs. Heat: 1H O/U 116.5 Jun 21 $6 −$6 -100%
Duke Blue Devils vs. Michigan Wolverines: O/U 150.5 Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: Miami Hurricanes (-1.5) Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (-2.5) Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: Utah Valley Wolverines (-1.5) Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: Trail Blazers (-8.5) Jun 21 $6 −$6 -100%
Spread: Florida Gulf Coast Eagles (-2.5) Jun 21 $6 −$6 -100%
Kansas City Royals vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 7.5 Jun 21 $11 −$11 -100%
Hampton Pirates vs. North Carolina A&T Aggies: O/U 139.5 Jun 21 $4 −$4 -100%
Hawks vs. Rockets: O/U 226.5 Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Pacers vs. Bucks: O/U 229.5 Jun 21 $6 −$6 -100%
Dayton Flyers vs. George Washington Revolutionaries: O/U 152.5 Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: Trail Blazers (-1.5) Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Spread: Samford Bulldogs (-10.5) Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: Duke Blue Devils (-27.5) Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 21 $6 −$6 -100%
Kings vs. Grizzlies: O/U 234.5 Jun 21 $6 −$6 -100%
Spread: High Point Panthers (-8.5) Jun 21 $6 −$6 -100%
Spread: Timberwolves (-6.5) Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: Rockets (-18.5) Jun 21 $11 −$11 -100%
Mavericks vs. Raptors: O/U 229.5 Jun 21 $6 −$6 -100%
Hornets vs. Celtics Jun 21 $7 −$7 -100%
Spread: Eastern Kentucky Colonels (-4.5) Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: Kent State Golden Flashes (-10.5) Jun 21 $6 −$6 -100%
Saint Mary's Gaels vs. Seattle Redhawks: O/U 136.5 Jun 21 $6 −$6 -100%
Spread: Missouri State Bears (-1.5) Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: Wisconsin Badgers (-4.5) Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Heat vs. Hornets: 1H O/U 120.5 Jun 21 $6 −$6 -100%
Spread: North Carolina State Wolfpack (-8.5) Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: South Florida Bulls (-15.5) Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Pelicans vs. Jazz Jun 21 $4 −$4 -100%
Spread: Troy Trojans (-18.5) Jun 21 $6 −$6 -100%
Wisconsin Badgers vs. Michigan Wolverines: O/U 160.5 Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Georgia Bulldogs vs. Vanderbilt Commodores: O/U 165.5 Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
1H Spread: Hornets (-3.5) Jun 21 $6 −$6 -100%
Spread: Trail Blazers (-11.5) Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
St. Bonaventure Bonnies vs. Richmond Spiders: O/U 149.5 Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY New York Mets 36¢ $408 43m
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5) BUY New York Mets 53¢ $597 43m
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 52¢ $633 1h
Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 51¢ $621 1h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 12.5 BUY Under 55¢ $669 1h
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees SELL Boston Red Sox 44¢ $653 1h
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees SELL Boston Red Sox 46¢ $0 1h
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 49¢ $597 1h
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees SELL Boston Red Sox 46¢ $0 1h
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees SELL Boston Red Sox 46¢ $0 1h
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 55¢ $669 1h
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 50¢ $761 2h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 7.5 SELL Over 50¢ $171 2h
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 8.5 SELL Under 49¢ $1,546 2h
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees SELL Boston Red Sox 46¢ $131 2h
Spread: Detroit Tigers (-1.5) BUY Chicago White Sox 63¢ $955 24h
Spread: Detroit Tigers (-1.5) BUY Chicago White Sox 62¢ $52 24h
Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5 BUY Under 53¢ $806 25h
Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5 BUY Under 52¢ $132 25h
Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 9.5 BUY Under 52¢ $791 25h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $414 35h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 16¢ $246 40h
Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 52¢ $791 46h
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 54¢ $821 47h
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers BUY Chicago White Sox 33¢ $505 2d
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies: 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5 BUY Over 56¢ $25 2d
Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners BUY Boston Red Sox 46¢ $701 2d
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves BUY Atlanta Braves 38¢ $581 2d
Toronto Tempo vs. Connecticut Sun: O/U 165.5 BUY Over 53¢ $30 2d
Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-1.5) BUY Athletics 73¢ $1,104 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5,408.59 · official $5,408.71 (match) · 3500 history records