Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T15:31:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
50 0x50c7…55aa crypto 45 markets active 2d ago coverage 620d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$2,633 (-12%) realized −$2,633 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate98%44W / 1L
Whale WR92%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$495per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days+$19
14 days+$22
30 days+$22
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 53% +$24
politics 47% −$2,659
tech 0% $0
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +0.3% -9.2% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 10 +0.3% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 15 +0.3% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
all 45 -0.4% -9.9% 98% 0% -20.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.9% 0% -20.2%
10% -18.5% 0% -27.9%
15% -26.4% 0% -34.8%
20% -33.6% 0% -41.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 44% · top 2 53% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 92% (≥$502) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -1% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2,660 · ×0.0 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.01 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

620d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2,633
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)98%
Wins / losses44 / 1
Whale WR (big bets)92%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)45 / 45
History coverage620d
Avg bet$495
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 45 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 23? Jun 23 $1,740 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 23? Jun 23 $520 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 23? Jun 23 $309 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 22? Jun 22 $1,583 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 22? Jun 22 $983 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $1,218 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $712 +$11 +2%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 18? Jun 18 $622 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 17? Jun 17 $878 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $1,672 +$2 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 in March? Apr 02 $28 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $25,000 in March? Apr 02 $40 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in March? Apr 02 $44 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $200 in March? Apr 02 $53 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in March? Apr 02 $66 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 in February? Mar 06 $21 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $4,200 in February? Mar 06 $36 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 in February? Mar 06 $45 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $125,000 in February? Mar 06 $58 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $5,000 in February? Mar 06 $71 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from September 19 to September 26, Feb 19 $1 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from September 19 to September 26, Feb 19 $1 $0 +0%
Will STAN win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Feb 19 $3 $0 +0%
Will AUTO win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Feb 19 $3 $0 +0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Se Feb 19 $4 $0 +0%
Will SPD win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Feb 19 $4 $0 +0%
Will Přísaha win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary electi Feb 19 $5 $0 +0%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on September 30? Feb 19 $5 $0 +0%
Will Mistral AI have the top AI model on September 30? Feb 19 $5 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $350 in September? Feb 19 $5 $0 +0%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on September 30? Feb 19 $6 $0 +0%
Will Alibaba have the top AI model on September 30? Feb 19 $6 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $2400 in September? Feb 19 $14 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $2000 in September? Feb 19 $22 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80K in September? Feb 19 $28 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70K in September? Feb 19 $35 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $8000 in September? Feb 19 $83 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $120k in April? Jun 05 $2 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $300 in April? Jun 05 $3 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150k in April? Jun 05 $9 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200k in April? Jun 05 $99 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $5000 in April? Jun 05 $205 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by March 31? Apr 04 $502 +$1 +0%
Will Alexander Lukashenko win the 2025 Belarus Presidential Election? Jan 30 $503 +$1 +0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Oct 28 $10,028 −$2,660 -26%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 23? BUY No 100¢ $309 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 23? BUY No 100¢ $520 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 23? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,740 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $1,583 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 22? BUY Yes 100¢ $983 3d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 18? BUY Yes 100¢ $622 7d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 98¢ $712 7d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,218 7d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $878 8d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,672 8d
Will Bitcoin dip to $25,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $40 111d
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $28 111d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $66 111d
Will Ethereum dip to $200 in March? BUY No 100¢ $53 111d
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $44 111d
Will Bitcoin reach $125,000 in February? BUY No 100¢ $58 125d
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 in February? BUY No 100¢ $45 125d
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 in February? BUY No 99¢ $21 125d
Will Ethereum reach $5,000 in February? BUY No 100¢ $71 125d
Will Ethereum reach $4,200 in February? BUY No 100¢ $36 125d
Will Ethereum reach $8000 in September? BUY No 100¢ $83 276d
Will Ethereum dip to $2400 in September? BUY No 100¢ $14 276d
Will Ethereum dip to $2000 in September? BUY No 100¢ $22 276d
Will AUTO win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? BUY No 100¢ $3 276d
Will Přísaha win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary electi BUY No 100¢ $5 276d
Will STAN win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? BUY No 100¢ $3 276d
Will SPD win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? BUY No 100¢ $4 276d
Will Bitcoin dip to $80K in September? BUY No 100¢ $28 276d
Will Bitcoin dip to $70K in September? BUY No 100¢ $35 276d
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Se BUY No 100¢ $4 276d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 97 history records