Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:45:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
50 0x50c8…f649 crypto 425 markets active 0h ago coverage 120d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$116 (-2%) realized −$27 · open −$89
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate77%239W / 73L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day9.7pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$1,373now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$369
7 days−$296
14 days−$296
30 days−$296
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 49% −$53
weather 37% −$53
other 8% −$95
sports 3% +$68
world 2% −$111
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-14.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 273 -7.6% -16.4% 78% 21% -20.4%
≤30d 273 -7.6% -16.4% 78% 21% -20.4%
≤90d 276 -7.5% -16.3% 78% 21% -20.3%
all 312 -6.0% -14.9% 77% 23% -13.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.9% 23% -13.9%
10% -23.1% 14% -22.2%
15% -30.5% 10% -29.7%
20% -37.3% 6% -36.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
67% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$8 · ×0.23 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.74 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

120d coverage
Net worth$1,373
Realized−$27
Unrealized−$89
Win rate (resolved)77%
Wins / losses239 / 73
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions113
Markets (closed)312 / 425
History coverage120d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day9.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 113 History 312 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 18? No 84¢ 87¢ $71 $74 +$3 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on June 17? No 90¢ 100¢ $65 $71 +$6 (+10%)
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June 17? No 87¢ 94¢ $60 $65 +$5 (+8%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 18? No 91¢ 98¢ $59 $64 +$4 (+7%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 18? No 67¢ 63¢ $44 $41 −$3 (-6%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 28°C on June 17? No 86¢ 100¢ $30 $35 +$5 (+17%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on June 18? No 90¢ 78¢ $40 $35 −$6 (-14%)
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on June 18? No 95¢ 91¢ $33 $32 −$1 (-4%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 18? No 74¢ 66¢ $33 $30 −$3 (-10%)
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on June 17? No 89¢ 97¢ $27 $29 +$2 (+9%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 23°C or below on June 18? No 70¢ 47¢ $42 $28 −$14 (-33%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 18? No 68¢ 66¢ $27 $27 −$1 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 17? Yes 60¢ 80¢ $19 $25 +$6 (+33%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 32°C on June 18? No 85¢ 70¢ $30 $25 −$5 (-17%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 30°C on June 18? No 91¢ 89¢ $23 $22 −$1 (-3%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on June 18? No 64¢ 64¢ $22 $22 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on June 18? No 83¢ 87¢ $21 $22 +$1 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 70-71°F on June 17? No 97¢ 93¢ $23 $22 −$1 (-4%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on June 18? Yes 28¢ 27¢ $23 $22 −$1 (-5%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 18? No 83¢ 72¢ $25 $21 −$4 (-14%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on June 18? No 76¢ 84¢ $19 $21 +$2 (+10%)
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 23°C on June 17? No 82¢ 100¢ $16 $20 +$4 (+22%)
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 23°C on June 17? No 86¢ 55¢ $30 $19 −$11 (-36%)
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on June 17? No 83¢ 95¢ $17 $19 +$2 (+14%)
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 96-97°F on June 17? No 79¢ 84¢ $17 $18 +$1 (+7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 24 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 17 $4 +$1 +36%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 17 $3 +$2 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$3 -79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$4 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 17 $66 −$50 -76%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 17 $8 +$2 +29%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 17 $9 +$2 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 17 $25 −$4 -16%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 17 $20 +$5 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 17 $4 +$1 +20%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 17 $20 +$1 +4%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 17 $9 +$3 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$6 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 17 $4 +$1 +15%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 17 $4 +$1 +18%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 17 $201 +$10 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on June 17? Jun 17 $4 +$1 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on June 17? Jun 17 $9 +$1 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C on June 17? Jun 17 $9 +$6 +61%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on June 17? Jun 17 $35 +$15 +43%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 17? Jun 17 $2 +$1 +28%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on June 17? Jun 17 $36 +$4 +10%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Ju Jun 17 $35 +$4 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 13°C on June 17? Jun 17 $9 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 17 $54 −$52 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 17 $4 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 17 $58 +$4 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 17 $4 +$1 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +8%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 40°C or higher on June 17? Jun 17 $7 +$13 +207%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +9%
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 17? Jun 17 $4 +$1 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 17 $10 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 17? Jun 17 $13 +$5 +37%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 17? Jun 17 $17 +$8 +46%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $6 +$4 +63%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 17 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 17 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -88%
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 17 $4 +$1 +16%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 40°C or higher on June 19? BUY No 86¢ $4 1m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $21 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $4 3m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on June 18? BUY No 83¢ $4 3m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 18? BUY No 67¢ $3 3m
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 19? BUY Yes 97¢ $5 4m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 18? BUY No 41¢ $2 4m
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 19? BUY Yes 97¢ $5 5m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on June 18? BUY No 83¢ $4 6m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on June 18? BUY No 83¢ $4 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET SELL Up 17¢ $1 6m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $3 7m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on June 18? BUY No 83¢ $4 7m
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 18? BUY No 20¢ $1 7m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on June 18? BUY No 83¢ $4 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $4 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $5 14m
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 18? BUY Yes 82¢ $4 14m
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 18? BUY No 21¢ $1 14m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 18? SELL No 35¢ $0 14m
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 18? SELL Yes 78¢ $6 15m
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 19? SELL Yes 72¢ $2 16m
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 18? SELL Yes 78¢ $6 16m
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 19? BUY No 29¢ $2 16m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $5 16m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $40 17m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET SELL Up 76¢ $15 17m
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 21? SELL No 94¢ $2 18m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $20 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $5 19m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,373.42 · official $1,388.03 · 1382 history records