Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T04:38:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
50 0x50c8…df28 crypto 9 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover
Total PnL +$348 (+71%) realized +$348 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +61% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +35% what you keep after slip
Net edge+35%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate56%5W / 4L
Drawdown52%max
Avg bet$55per market
Trades / day9.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$155
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)+46.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +61.4% +46.0% 56% 56% +19.1%
≤30d 9 +61.4% +46.0% 56% 56% +19.1%
≤90d 9 +61.4% +46.0% 56% 56% +19.1%
all 9 +61.4% +46.0% 56% 56% +19.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +46.0% 56% +19.1%
10% +32.0% 56% +7.7%
15% +19.3% 56% -2.7%
20% +7.6% 44% -12.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 65% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +32% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +61% · $-wt +32% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$83 vs −$65 · ×1.28 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.6 per $1 lost it wins $1.6
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$348
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses5 / 4
Open positions0
Markets (closed)9 / 9
History coverage2d
Avg bet$55
Trades / day9.5
Drawdown52%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 9 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 23 $120 −$120 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 23 $54 −$50 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 23 $44 +$147 +335%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 22 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 22 $61 +$120 +196%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4AM ET Jun 21 $69 −$69 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1PM ET Jun 21 $20 +$37 +187%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2AM ET Jun 21 $63 +$23 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1AM ET Jun 21 $44 +$86 +196%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 3¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 8¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 7¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $27 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $27 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Down 21¢ $22 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Down 21¢ $22 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $30 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $30 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 5¢ $19 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $20 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4AM ET BUY Up 15¢ $38 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4AM ET BUY Up 15¢ $31 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2AM ET BUY Down 10¢ $20 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $22 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $22 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $22 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $22 46h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 26 history records