Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T04:14:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
50 0x50ca…fde3 crypto 38 markets active 2h ago coverage 25d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$443 (-5%) realized −$473 · open +$30
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -44% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -49% what you keep after slip
Net edge-49%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate35%13W / 24L
Whale WR57%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$220per market
Trades / day1.9pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$68now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$20
7 days−$44
14 days−$43
30 days−$445
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 59% +$6
other 34% −$4
sports 7% −$417
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-49.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 -76.3% -78.6% 15% 10% -13.2%
≤30d 37 -43.9% -49.3% 35% 5% -14.4%
≤90d 37 -43.9% -49.3% 35% 5% -14.4%
all 37 -43.9% -49.3% 35% 5% -14.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -49.3% 5% -14.4%
10% -54.1% 5% -22.6%
15% -58.5% 3% -30.0%
20% -62.6% 0% -36.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 76% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
85% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -44% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 57% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -5% → late -80% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$21 · ×0.1 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.06 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

25d coverage
Net worth$68
Realized−$473
Unrealized+$30
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses13 / 24
Whale WR (big bets)57%
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)37 / 38
History coverage25d
Avg bet$220
Trades / day1.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 37 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 Over 56¢ 100¢ $38 $68 +$30 (+78%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 17 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Panama vs. England: O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $25 +$10 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 27 $0 $0 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 27 $0 $0 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 27 $0 $0 -100%
Norway vs. France: O/U 5.5 Jun 26 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 26 $0 $0 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 26, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 26 $0 $0 -100%
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 3.5 Jun 25 $33 −$33 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 25 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 25 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 25 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 25 $0 $0 -100%
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 3.5 Jun 24 $33 +$11 +32%
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 24 $0 $0 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 24 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 24 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 24 $0 $0 -100%
BNB Up or Down - June 24, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 24 $0 $0 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 23? Jun 23 $470 $0 +0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $490 −$1 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 20? Jun 20 $465 $0 +0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $300 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $330 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $461 $0 +0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $486 −$1 -0%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $407 −$404 -99%
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $530 −$1 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $538 −$1 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $500 +$1 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8AM ET Jun 09 $560 $0 +0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $487 −$1 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $511 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 6? Jun 06 $524 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $560 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $310 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 3? Jun 03 $103 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 3? Jun 03 $170 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 56¢ $39 1h
Panama vs. England: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 70¢ $25 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 8h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 8h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 8h
Norway vs. France: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 51¢ $30 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 34h
XRP Up or Down - June 26, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $0 34h
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 42¢ $33 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 2d
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 75¢ $33 3d
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 3d
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 3d
BNB Up or Down - June 24, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 23? BUY Yes 100¢ $470 4d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $489 4d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $490 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $465 7d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $300 7d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $300 9d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $330 10d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 100¢ $461 11d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $485 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $67.97 · official $67.97 (match) · 69 history records