Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T11:27:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
50 0x50ca…0d17 other 112 markets active 1h ago coverage 135d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$166 (+0%) realized +$166 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +5% what you keep after slip
Net edge+5%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate15%17W / 95L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown20%max
Avg bet$374per market
Trades / day2.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 58% −$26
politics 21% −$9
sports 8% +$204
crypto 4% −$1
economics 4% −$2
tech 3% −$1
culture 1% $0
world 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)+4.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +0.0% -9.5% 33% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 6 -0.1% -9.6% 17% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 63 -0.1% -9.6% 5% 0% -9.6%
all 112 +15.9% +4.9% 15% 12% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +4.9% 12% -9.2%
10% -5.1% 10% -17.9%
15% -14.3% 10% -25.8%
20% -22.7% 9% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
24% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +16% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +32% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$1 · ×20.35 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.68 per $1 lost it wins $3.68
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

135d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$166
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)15%
Wins / losses17 / 95
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)112 / 112
History coverage135d
Avg bet$374
Trades / day2.0
Drawdown20%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 112 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 24 $350 $0 -0%
Will the Tennessee Titans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 20 $32 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 17 $48 $0 +0%
Will Helder Barbalho win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 14 $32 $0 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin May 31 $266 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 25 $215 $0 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 22 $255 $0 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 21 $893 −$1 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 19 $264 $0 -0%
Will the New York Jets win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 17 $238 $0 -0%
Will ByteDance have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 18 $432 $0 -0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ap Apr 18 $313 $0 -0%
Will Jeon Hyun-heui win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 17 $416 $0 -0%
Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 16 $310 $0 -0%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 16 $1,089 −$1 -0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 15 $379 $0 -0%
Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $753 −$1 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Apr 14 $386 $0 -0%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? Apr 14 $430 $0 -0%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 14 $323 $0 -0%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 13 $382 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 13 $406 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 12 $416 $0 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 12 $742 −$1 -0%
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 11 $365 $0 -0%
Will San Marino win Eurovision 2026? Apr 10 $704 −$1 -0%
Will Juan Daniel Oviedo win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Apr 08 $296 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me Apr 08 $343 $0 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 08 $331 $0 -0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 08 $435 $0 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 08 $348 $0 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 07 $365 $0 -0%
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 07 $397 $0 -0%
Will Danny Willett win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 07 $366 −$1 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 07 $337 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 07 $1,126 −$1 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 La Liga? Apr 06 $336 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 in April? Apr 06 $409 −$1 -0%
Will Portugal win Eurovision 2026? Apr 06 $671 −$1 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 05 $1,230 −$1 -0%
Will Latvia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 04 $393 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 04 $421 $0 -0%
Will Christopher Waller be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 04 $336 $0 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 04 $330 $0 -0%
Will Cho Eun-hee win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 03 $443 $0 -0%
Will Montenegro win Eurovision 2026? Apr 02 $402 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 02 $719 −$1 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 01 $1,659 −$2 -0%
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 01 $400 $0 -0%
Will Solana reach $120 in March? Apr 01 $31 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $28 1h
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $28 3d
Will the Tennessee Titans win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $32 4d
Will the Tennessee Titans win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $32 6d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 100¢ $48 9d
Will Helder Barbalho win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $32 9d
Will Helder Barbalho win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $32 16d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin SELL No 99¢ $266 23d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin BUY No 99¢ $266 27d
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $215 29d
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $215 32d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $255 32d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $255 33d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $231 33d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $231 34d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $264 35d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $264 36d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $297 36d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $297 37d
Will the New York Jets win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $238 38d
Will the New York Jets win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $238 49d
Will ByteDance have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? SELL No 100¢ $432 66d
Will ByteDance have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? BUY No 100¢ $432 66d
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ap SELL No 100¢ $313 67d
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ap BUY No 100¢ $313 67d
Will Jeon Hyun-heui win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election SELL No 100¢ $416 67d
Will Jeon Hyun-heui win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election BUY No 100¢ $416 67d
Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $310 68d
Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $310 68d
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $359 69d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 338 history records