Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T23:09:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

50
0x50ce…5b6f
crypto · 25 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$6 -6%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$5 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
Net worth$0
Realized−$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses5 / 18
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)23 / 25
History coverage32d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day3.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%
Chart Positions 2 History 23 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Yes 94¢ 94¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-0%)
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Yes $0 $0 −$0 (-2%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 12AM ET Down $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? Yes $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 1PM ET Down 37¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on May 17? Yes $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on May 18? Yes $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 6AM ET Down 45¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 1PM ET Down 59¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on May 15? Yes 13¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on May 14? Yes 17¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on May 16? Yes 15¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on May 16? Yes 14¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $5 $0 -3%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? May 29 $6 $0 -7%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? May 29 $9 −$1 -7%
Roland Garros WTA: Elina Svitolina vs Tamara Korpatsch May 28 $1 $0 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 1PM ET May 24 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 4AM ET May 22 $1 +$4 +351%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 6AM ET May 22 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 3AM ET May 22 $3 +$2 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 2AM ET May 22 $3 +$2 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 1AM ET May 22 $2 +$2 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 1PM ET May 21 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 10AM ET May 21 $7 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 7AM ET May 21 $1 $0 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 3PM ET May 20 $2 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 2AM ET May 20 $1 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 12AM ET May 20 $1 −$1 -94%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Ma May 16 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ma May 15 $2 −$2 -99%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Ma May 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on May 15? May 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on May 16? May 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on May 14? May 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15? May 12 $1 $0 -11%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 56% −$1
crypto 27% +$4
sports 10% −$1
weather 7% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 94¢ $2 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $2 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 94¢ $2 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $2 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 94¢ $2 41h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $2 41h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 94¢ $2 41h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $2 41h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes $1 41h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes $2 41h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 94¢ $2 41h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $2 41h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 94¢ $2 43h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $2 43h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 94¢ $2 43h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $2 43h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 94¢ $2 43h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $2 43h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 94¢ $2 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $2 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 94¢ $2 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $2 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 94¢ $2 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $2 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 94¢ $2 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $2 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 94¢ $2 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $2 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 94¢ $2 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $2 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-30.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 20 -16.0% -24.0% 25% 25% -15.2%
≤90d 23 -23.1% -30.4% 22% 22% -18.2%
all 23 -23.1% -30.4% 22% 22% -18.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover3.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -30.4% 22% -18.2%
10% -37.1% 17% -26.1%
15% -43.2% 17% -33.2%
20% -48.7% 17% -39.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.19 · official $0.00 (match) · 130 history records