Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T10:59:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

50
0x50d3…7173
other · 80 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$10 -6%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$5 · open −$6
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$48
Realized−$5
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses15 / 20
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions45
Markets (closed)35 / 80
History coverage22d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day4.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit52%
Chart Positions 45 History 35 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days+$3
14 days+$7
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Lionel Messi score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 15¢ 14¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-7%)
Will Cristiano Ronaldo score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 21¢ 18¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-12%)
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? No 34¢ 38¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+10%)
Will the Bank of Israel decrease the Bank of Israel Interest Rate after the July decision? Yes 71¢ 71¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+0%)
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 12¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+10%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Yes 27¢ 28¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Yes 67¢ 68¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Yes 82¢ 82¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Yes 77¢ 76¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 76¢ 76¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 71¢ 70¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Yes 71¢ 70¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Yes 67¢ 66¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Yes 62¢ 62¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Yes 61¢ 60¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Yes 60¢ 60¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Yes 59¢ 58¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Yes 55¢ 55¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Yes 50¢ 50¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Yes 44¢ 44¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Yes 91¢ 90¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Yes 29¢ 28¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Yes 29¢ 28¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $6 $0 +8%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 +$5 +442%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1 +$1 +60%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 13 $1 $0 -6%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $1 +$7 +649%
Will Paraguay advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu Jun 13 $1 $0 -44%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $2 +$2 +112%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 13 $7 −$5 -71%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 $0 -4%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 13 $1 $0 -9%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $1 +$3 +250%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -99%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 13? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -88%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 12 $1 $0 +24%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? Jun 12 $2 $0 +18%
Ebola case in the US by June 30? Jun 12 $1 $0 +2%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of June? Jun 09 $1 $0 +9%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 06 $1 −$1 -98%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 3, 2026? Jun 06 $5 +$1 +15%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? Jun 01 $6 +$2 +26%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $9 +$3 +29%
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by May 31? May 29 $22 −$18 -81%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May? May 28 $3 −$1 -42%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 28 $10 −$8 -78%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 27 $15 +$3 +22%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31? May 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 26 $1 −$1 -98%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? May 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25? May 26 $5 +$17 +335%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 56% −$9
other 26% +$1
sports 14% $0
finance 3% −$2
economics 1% $0
crypto 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $1 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 59¢ $1 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 50¢ $2 1h
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 60¢ $1 1h
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 1h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 1h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $1 1h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 50¢ $1 1h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $1 1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 44¢ $1 1h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 64¢ $1 13h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 77¢ $1 13h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 55¢ $1 13h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 62¢ $1 13h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $1 13h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 13h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $1 13h
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 13h
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 13h
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $8 13h
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 17h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 34¢ $2 17h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 78¢ $1 17h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 17h
Will Paraguay advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu SELL Yes 38¢ $1 17h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 22¢ $0 17h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 40¢ $4 17h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 74¢ $1 24h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)+2.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 +34.2% +21.4% 45% 32% -1.3%
≤30d 35 +13.7% +2.8% 43% 34% -13.0%
≤90d 35 +13.7% +2.8% 43% 34% -13.0%
all 35 +13.7% +2.8% 43% 34% -13.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover4.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +2.8% 34% -13.0%
10% -7.0% 26% -21.3%
15% -16.0% 17% -28.9%
20% -24.2% 17% -35.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $47.95 · official $47.96 (match) · 117 history records