Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T17:28:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
50 0x50d7…f9bb sports 29 markets active 1h ago coverage 7d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$24 (+5%) realized +$24 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate62%18W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day18.5pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$7
7 days−$7
14 days+$15
30 days+$15
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 92% +$13
crypto 8% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-2.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 +13.8% +2.9% 55% 20% -11.1%
≤30d 29 +8.2% -2.1% 62% 17% -6.7%
≤90d 29 +8.2% -2.1% 62% 17% -6.7%
all 29 +8.2% -2.1% 62% 17% -6.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.1% 17% -6.7%
10% -11.4% 17% -15.7%
15% -20.0% 17% -23.8%
20% -27.8% 10% -31.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 52% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
67% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late +19% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$5 · ×0.79 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.29 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$24
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses18 / 11
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions0
Markets (closed)29 / 29
History coverage7d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day18.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 29 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Poznan: Martin Krumich vs Alan Wazny Jun 16 $80 −$1 -1%
Poznan: Milos Karol vs Joao Lucas Da Silva Jun 16 $36 −$4 -11%
Poznan: Genaro Alberto Olivieri vs Max Hans Rehberg Jun 16 $38 +$1 +2%
Poznan: Maks Kasnikowski vs Lorenzo Giustino Jun 16 $5 $0 -10%
HSBC Championships (Doubles): Mihalikova/Nicholls vs Fernandez/Siegemu Jun 14 $10 +$12 +114%
HSBC Championships (Doubles): Fernandez/Siegemund vs Mboko/Williams Jun 14 $5 $0 -3%
Libema Open: Robin Montgomery vs Barbora Krejcikova Jun 14 $35 +$3 +8%
Stuttgart Open: Alexander Bublik vs Taylor Fritz Jun 13 $8 +$10 +117%
ITF Decatur: Ana Grubor vs Lea Ma Jun 12 $25 −$21 -83%
Stuttgart Open (Doubles): Hanfmann/Struff vs Kirkov/Miedler Jun 12 $22 −$22 -99%
ITF Varnamo: Noah Schlagenhauf vs Adrian Oetzbach Jun 11 $3 +$7 +216%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 10 $10 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 10 $10 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +0%
Bratislava: Vitaliy Sachko vs Thanasi Kokkinakis Jun 10 $17 +$7 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 10 $7 $0 -3%
Bratislava: Petr Brunclik vs Andrej Martin Jun 10 $10 $0 -3%
Bratislava: Federico Cina vs Jan Choinski Jun 10 $55 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 10 $2 $0 -18%
Bratislava: Joao Lucas Da Silva vs Alexander Donski Jun 10 $19 +$2 +10%
Bratislava: Pedro Boscardin Dias vs Emilio Nava Jun 09 $10 $0 -2%
Bratislava: Taro Daniel vs Timofey Skatov Jun 09 $4 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 09 $2 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 09 $2 $0 +10%
Bratislava: Martin Krumich vs Maxim Mrva Jun 09 $59 +$22 +37%
Bratislava: Tiago Pereira vs Andrej Martin Jun 09 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 09 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 09 $3 $0 +2%
ITF Ceska Lipa: Aneta Kucmova vs Caijsa Hennemann Jun 09 $1 −$1 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Poznan: Martin Krumich vs Alan Wazny BUY Martin Krumich 58¢ $1 1h
Poznan: Martin Krumich vs Alan Wazny SELL Alan Wazny 12¢ $5 1h
Poznan: Martin Krumich vs Alan Wazny BUY Alan Wazny 29¢ $14 1h
Poznan: Martin Krumich vs Alan Wazny SELL Alan Wazny 24¢ $20 1h
Poznan: Martin Krumich vs Alan Wazny BUY Alan Wazny 15¢ $13 1h
Poznan: Martin Krumich vs Alan Wazny SELL Alan Wazny 52¢ $13 1h
Poznan: Martin Krumich vs Alan Wazny BUY Alan Wazny 53¢ $13 1h
Poznan: Martin Krumich vs Alan Wazny SELL Alan Wazny 48¢ $7 1h
Poznan: Martin Krumich vs Alan Wazny BUY Alan Wazny 63¢ $10 1h
Poznan: Martin Krumich vs Alan Wazny SELL Alan Wazny 57¢ $11 1h
Poznan: Martin Krumich vs Alan Wazny BUY Alan Wazny 48¢ $10 1h
Poznan: Martin Krumich vs Alan Wazny SELL Alan Wazny 65¢ $10 1h
Poznan: Martin Krumich vs Alan Wazny BUY Alan Wazny 62¢ $9 1h
Poznan: Martin Krumich vs Alan Wazny SELL Alan Wazny 52¢ $11 1h
Poznan: Martin Krumich vs Alan Wazny BUY Alan Wazny 45¢ $10 1h
Poznan: Milos Karol vs Joao Lucas Da Silva SELL Milos Karol 44¢ $11 3h
Poznan: Milos Karol vs Joao Lucas Da Silva BUY Milos Karol 40¢ $10 3h
Poznan: Milos Karol vs Joao Lucas Da Silva SELL Milos Karol 30¢ $10 3h
Poznan: Milos Karol vs Joao Lucas Da Silva BUY Milos Karol 37¢ $2 3h
Poznan: Milos Karol vs Joao Lucas Da Silva BUY Milos Karol 37¢ $2 3h
Poznan: Milos Karol vs Joao Lucas Da Silva BUY Milos Karol 37¢ $4 3h
Poznan: Milos Karol vs Joao Lucas Da Silva BUY Milos Karol 37¢ $6 3h
Poznan: Milos Karol vs Joao Lucas Da Silva SELL Milos Karol 33¢ $11 3h
Poznan: Milos Karol vs Joao Lucas Da Silva BUY Milos Karol 38¢ $8 3h
Poznan: Milos Karol vs Joao Lucas Da Silva BUY Milos Karol 38¢ $1 3h
Poznan: Milos Karol vs Joao Lucas Da Silva BUY Milos Karol 38¢ $1 3h
Poznan: Milos Karol vs Joao Lucas Da Silva BUY Milos Karol 37¢ $3 3h
Poznan: Genaro Alberto Olivieri vs Max Hans Rehberg SELL Genaro Alberto Olivieri 84¢ $21 4h
Poznan: Genaro Alberto Olivieri vs Max Hans Rehberg BUY Genaro Alberto Olivieri 75¢ $19 4h
Poznan: Genaro Alberto Olivieri vs Max Hans Rehberg SELL Max Hans Rehberg 49¢ $4 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 148 history records