Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T12:31:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
50 0x50dc…481e other 27 markets active 1h ago coverage 7d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$368 (+36%) realized +$370 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +6% what you keep after slip
Net edge+6%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate57%13W / 10L
Drawdown22%max
Avg bet$38per market
Trades / day4.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit22%portable
Net worth$158now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 7d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 82% +$406
world 10% +$4
sports 8% −$51
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)+10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 +21.6% +10.0% 57% 52% +29.0%
≤30d 23 +21.6% +10.0% 57% 52% +29.0%
≤90d 23 +21.6% +10.0% 57% 52% +29.0%
all 23 +21.6% +10.0% 57% 52% +29.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +10.0% 52% +29.0%
10% -0.5% 52% +16.7%
15% -10.1% 52% +5.4%
20% -18.9% 35% -4.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +43% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +22% · $-wt +43% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +9% → late +33% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$42 vs −$18 · ×2.27 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.95 per $1 lost it wins $2.95
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$158
Realized+$370
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses13 / 10
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions4
Markets (closed)23 / 27
History coverage7d
Avg bet$38
Trades / day4.0
Drawdown22%
Kalshi-fit22%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 23 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Yes 63¢ 62¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Yes 53¢ 52¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? No 53¢ 52¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? No 24¢ 24¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $51 +$68 +134%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $51 +$37 +73%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $5 +$24 +474%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 2 Colombia? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $50 +$18 +36%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $50 +$20 +40%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $50 +$24 +48%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $51 +$47 +93%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $51 +$116 +226%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $100 +$4 +4%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $51 +$29 +57%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $51 +$56 +109%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $50 −$50 -99%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $51 +$81 +158%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $50 +$22 +44%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 53¢ $51 1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 24¢ $10 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $51 1h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $51 1h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 2 Colombia? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 23h
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $5 23h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 23h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 23h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 42¢ $51 23h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $51 23h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 73¢ $50 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 71¢ $50 2d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 18¢ $10 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $50 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 33¢ $10 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $104 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $100 4d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 56¢ $51 4d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $51 4d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 30¢ $51 4d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 27¢ $20 4d
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 4¢ $10 4d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $51 5d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 18¢ $20 5d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 81¢ $50 5d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $51 6d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 38¢ $51 6d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $50 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $158.45 · official $158.45 (match) · 40 history records