Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T12:32:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

50
0x50dc…ef30
crypto · 15 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
+$104 +14%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$157 · open −$37
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$43
Realized+$157
Unrealized−$37
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses4 / 8
Est. fees paid−$14
Open positions3
Markets (closed)12 / 15
History coverage15d
Avg bet$49
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown43%
Kalshi-fit87%
Chart Positions 3 History 12 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$15
7 days+$15
14 days+$15
30 days+$157
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - European Pro League Series 7 Playoffs Oxuji Esports 16¢ 23¢ $30 $43 +$13 (+43%)
Counter-Strike: WRAITH PCIFIC vs Clutchain (BO3) - United21 Playoffs WRAITH PCIFIC 22¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: illwill vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Stage Virtus.pro 37¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Yes 38¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Down 19¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Up 3¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Down 22¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Down 9¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Nexus vs Noir Verse (BO3) - ROG Journey Playoffs Noir Verse 9¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Down 6¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 14 $26 +$54 +208%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$12 +234%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 14 $16 −$15 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 14 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -95%
Counter-Strike: Nexus vs Noir Verse (BO3) - ROG Journey Playoffs Jun 14 $15 −$15 -97%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $20 −$20 -98%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $122 +$24 +19%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $261 −$24 -9%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? May 30 $153 +$165 +108%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 51% +$137
other 39% −$44
crypto 10% +$27
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $26 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Down 9¢ $5 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET SELL Up 82¢ $18 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 23¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Down 6¢ $5 1h
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - European Pro BUY Oxuji Esports 16¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 11¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 17¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 19¢ $5 1h
Counter-Strike: illwill vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Gro BUY Virtus.pro 37¢ $31 2h
Counter-Strike: Nexus vs Noir Verse (BO3) - ROG Journey Playoffs BUY Noir Verse 8¢ $5 3h
Counter-Strike: Nexus vs Noir Verse (BO3) - ROG Journey Playoffs BUY Noir Verse 10¢ $10 3h
Counter-Strike: WRAITH PCIFIC vs Clutchain (BO3) - United21 Playoffs BUY WRAITH PCIFIC 22¢ $20 3h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 38¢ $20 13h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Spirit 55¢ $145 14h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Spirit 26¢ $20 14h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Spirit 52¢ $101 14h
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? SELL Yes 24¢ $140 14d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? SELL Yes 56¢ $319 14d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 16¢ $98 14d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? SELL Yes 15¢ $97 14d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 24¢ $164 14d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $153 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-20.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -23.8% -31.1% 30% 30% -3.5%
≤30d 12 -11.6% -20.1% 33% 33% +12.5%
≤90d 12 -11.6% -20.1% 33% 33% +12.5%
all 12 -11.6% -20.1% 33% 33% +12.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.1% 33% +12.5%
10% -27.7% 25% +1.8%
15% -34.7% 25% -8.1%
20% -41.1% 25% -17.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $43.13 · official $43.13 (match) · 27 history records