Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T22:42:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
50 0x50dd…c05c politics 109 markets active 2h ago coverage 117d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$45 (+0%) realized +$45 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate9%10W / 97L
Drawdown50%max
Avg bet$214per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$60now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 43% −$11
other 41% −$10
sports 6% +$66
crypto 4% −$1
economics 3% −$1
world 2% −$1
tech 2% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-10.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 6 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 90 -0.3% -9.8% 6% 3% -9.5%
all 107 -1.2% -10.6% 9% 6% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.6% 6% -9.4%
10% -19.2% 5% -18.0%
15% -27.0% 5% -25.9%
20% -34.1% 4% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 60% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
40% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$1 · ×15.03 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.55 per $1 lost it wins $1.55
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

117d coverage
Net worth$60
Realized+$45
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)9%
Wins / losses10 / 97
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)107 / 109
History coverage117d
Avg bet$214
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown50%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 107 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $32 $32 −$0 (-0%)
Will XRP reach $2.40 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $28 $28 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 22 $30 $0 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $22 $0 -0%
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 14 $38 $0 -0%
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 05 $30 $0 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 01 $197 $0 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? May 25 $396 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 22 $227 $0 -0%
Will Eleni Kounalakis win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 20 $184 $0 -0%
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 16 $374 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 07 $435 $0 -0%
Will Alex Michelsen win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 05 $170 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 in April? May 05 $39 $0 +0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 05 $151 $0 -0%
Will Stephen Cloobeck win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 04 $154 $0 -0%
Will Georgia win Eurovision 2026? May 04 $816 −$1 -0%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 03 $203 $0 -0%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $380 $0 -0%
Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 02 $189 $0 -0%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2026? May 01 $159 $0 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 01 $158 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 30 $408 $0 -0%
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? Apr 26 $189 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 26 $195 $0 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 24 $386 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 24 $427 $0 +0%
Will Carlos Felipe Córdoba win the 2026 Colombian presidential electio Apr 24 $248 $0 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Apr 22 $436 $0 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 22 $434 $0 -0%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 21 $241 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 20 $209 $0 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 19 $412 $0 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $177 $0 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $189 $0 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 18 $382 $0 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 18 $231 $0 -0%
Will Latvia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 18 $251 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 16 $187 $0 -0%
Will Park Yong-jin win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 16 $407 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in April? Apr 16 $246 $0 -0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ap Apr 15 $171 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 15 $186 $0 -0%
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 14 $230 $0 -0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? Apr 14 $192 $0 -0%
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $548 −$1 -0%
Will Seo Young-kyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 13 $392 $0 -0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina Apr 13 $206 $0 -0%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 13 $176 $0 -0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? Apr 12 $241 $0 -0%
Will ByteDance have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 11 $184 $0 -0%
Will Park Hong-keun win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 10 $256 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in June? BUY No 100¢ $32 1h
Will XRP reach $2.40 in June? BUY No 100¢ $28 1h
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $30 1h
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $30 38h
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $22 3d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $22 4d
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $38 8d
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $38 14d
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $30 17d
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $30 21d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $197 21d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $197 28d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $172 28d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $172 31d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $227 31d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $227 33d
Will Eleni Kounalakis win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $184 33d
Will Eleni Kounalakis win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $184 37d
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $190 37d
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $190 46d
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $209 46d
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $4 47d
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $205 47d
Will Alex Michelsen win the 2026 Men's French Open? SELL No 100¢ $170 48d
Will Alex Michelsen win the 2026 Men's French Open? BUY No 100¢ $170 48d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $151 48d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $151 48d
Will Stephen Cloobeck win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $154 49d
Will Stephen Cloobeck win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $154 49d
Will Georgia win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $200 49d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $59.88 · official $59.88 (match) · 320 history records