Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T03:54:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
50 0x50de…962b crypto 39 markets active 1h ago coverage 398d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$3 (-0%) realized −$2 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate42%16W / 22L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$134per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$73now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$3
14 days+$7
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 45% −$3
other 20% −$2
world 16% −$1
economics 13% −$1
crypto 3% $0
sports 2% −$1
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-11.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.0% -9.6% 25% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 8 -8.0% -16.8% 38% 12% -9.7%
≤90d 12 -5.3% -14.3% 42% 8% -9.6%
all 38 -1.7% -11.0% 42% 3% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.0% 3% -9.6%
10% -19.6% 3% -18.3%
15% -27.3% 3% -26.2%
20% -34.5% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 98% · top 2 98% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.87 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.64 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

398d coverage
Net worth$73
Realized−$2
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses16 / 22
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)38 / 39
History coverage398d
Avg bet$134
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 38 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? No 52¢ 52¢ $73 $73 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Trump and Putin meet next in China? Jun 18 $825 −$1 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 18 $857 −$1 -0%
Will Civic Platform (GP) gain the most seats in the next Russian parli Jun 18 $855 −$1 -0%
Will the price of Solana be less than $30 on June 10? Jun 18 $14 $0 +0%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs G2 Esports (BO5) - LEC Playoffs Jun 08 $28 +$10 +36%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 19 $23 $0 -0%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 19 $11 −$11 -99%
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $1,600 on April 4? May 19 $14 $0 +0%
Will Hong Ihk-pyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 03 $20 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $76,000 on March 23? Apr 03 $18 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from March 24 to March 31, 2026? Mar 30 $12 $0 -0%
Will XRP reach $4.00 in February? Mar 30 $9 $0 +1%
Will the US strike Nigeria next? Feb 06 $28 $0 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $3,300 and $3,400 on January 22? Feb 06 $21 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 640-659 tweets from January 20 to January 27, 2026 Jan 22 $17 $0 -0%
Will Solana dip to $70 January 5-11? Jan 22 $8 $0 +0%
Bank of Japan decreases interest rates after January 2026 meeting? Jan 08 $24 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 08 $6 $0 +0%
Will the Brooklyn Nets win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? Dec 26 $22 $0 -0%
Will the price of XRP be above $2.50 on December 1? Dec 26 $9 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $3,300 on December 1? Dec 05 $10 $0 +0%
Will Jurassic World: Rebirth be the top grossing movie of 2025? Dec 01 $18 $0 -0%
Will Union Saint-Gilloise win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 13 $25 $0 -0%
Will Solana reach $300 in October? Nov 13 $10 $0 +0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 28 $25 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200K in August? Sep 13 $10 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $2800 in August? Sep 13 $5 $0 +0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 29 $39 $0 -0%
Will XRP dip to $1.0 in July? Aug 15 $7 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60K in July? Aug 11 $7 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $300 in May? Jul 24 $7 $0 +0%
Will Andrey Rublev win the 2025 US Open? Jul 16 $21 $0 -0%
Will another candidate win the Polish presidential election? May 28 $308 $0 -0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after June 2025 meeting? May 28 $629 −$1 -0%
Will SER hold the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the May 26 $302 $0 -0%
Will Andrea Kimi Antonelli be the 2025 Drivers Champion? May 26 $307 $0 -0%
Will Denmark win Eurovision 2025? May 16 $295 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2025 Drivers Champion? May 16 $316 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Trump and Putin meet next in China? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 1h
Will Trump and Putin meet next in China? SELL No 100¢ $823 1h
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $47 1h
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $809 1h
Will Civic Platform (GP) gain the most seats in the next Russian parli SELL Yes 0¢ $1 1h
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $857 1h
Will Civic Platform (GP) gain the most seats in the next Russian parli SELL No 100¢ $853 1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 52¢ $74 1h
Will the price of Solana be less than $30 on June 10? BUY No 100¢ $14 9d
LoL: Karmine Corp vs G2 Esports (BO5) - LEC Playoffs BUY G2 Esports 73¢ $28 25d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL Yes 0¢ $0 29d
Thunder vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 52¢ $11 29d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL No 100¢ $23 29d
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $1,600 on April 4? BUY No 100¢ $14 75d
Will Hong Ihk-pyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election SELL No 100¢ $20 75d
Will Hong Ihk-pyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election BUY No 100¢ $20 75d
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from March 24 to March 31, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $12 79d
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from March 24 to March 31, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $12 79d
Will Bitcoin reach $76,000 on March 23? BUY No 100¢ $18 86d
Will the US strike Nigeria next? SELL No 100¢ $28 131d
Will XRP reach $4.00 in February? BUY No 99¢ $9 131d
Will the US strike Nigeria next? BUY No 100¢ $10 131d
Will the US strike Nigeria next? BUY No 100¢ $18 131d
Will Elon Musk post 640-659 tweets from January 20 to January 27, 2026 SELL No 100¢ $17 147d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $3,300 and $3,400 on January 22? BUY No 100¢ $21 147d
Will Elon Musk post 640-659 tweets from January 20 to January 27, 2026 BUY No 100¢ $17 147d
Bank of Japan decreases interest rates after January 2026 meeting? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 160d
Will Solana dip to $70 January 5-11? BUY No 100¢ $5 160d
Bank of Japan decreases interest rates after January 2026 meeting? SELL No 100¢ $24 160d
Will Solana dip to $70 January 5-11? BUY No 100¢ $3 160d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $72.61 · official $72.61 (match) · 109 history records