Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T21:12:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

50 0x50e0…1acf other 6 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real

Total PnL +$185 (+10%) realized +$201 · open −$16

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +14% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -1% what you keep after slip

Net edge-1%after slip

Net WR80%break-even

Win rate80%4W / 1L

Drawdown50%max

Avg bet$302per market

Trades / day6.9pace

Fees−$3est.

Kalshi-fit33%portable

Net worth$978now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +80%

net ROI/market (all)+3.3%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	5	+14.2%	+3.3%	80%	80%	+10.4%
≤30d	5	+14.2%	+3.3%	80%	80%	+10.4%
≤90d	5	+14.2%	+3.3%	80%	80%	+10.4%
all	5	+14.2%	+3.3%	80%	80%	+10.4%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover6.9 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to5%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+3.3%	80%	+10.4%
10%	-6.6%	80%	-0.1%
15%	-15.6%	60%	-9.8%
20%	-23.9%	20%	-18.6%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 36% · top 2 67% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +22% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +14% · $-wt +22% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$67 vs −$91 · ×0.74 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×2.98 per $1 lost it wins $2.98

Copy size

≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$978

Realized+$201

Unrealized−$16

Win rate (resolved)80%

Wins / losses4 / 1

Est. fees paid−$3

Open positions1

Markets (closed)5 / 6

History coverage1d

Avg bet$302

Trades / day6.9

Drawdown50%

Kalshi-fit33%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 5 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25?	No	79¢	78¢	$993	$978	−$16 (-2%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24?	Jun 25	$47	+$26	+57%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24?	Jun 25	$283	+$64	+23%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24?	Jun 24	$200	+$83	+41%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Petra Marcinko vs Kimberly Birrell	Jun 24	$91	−$91	-99%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Arthur Fery vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo	Jun 24	$194	+$97	+50%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25?	BUY No	79¢	$999	1h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24?	SELL Yes	100¢	$73	18h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	63¢	$47	18h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24?	SELL Yes	100¢	$347	21h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	81¢	$283	24h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24?	SELL Yes	100¢	$283	24h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	70¢	$200	26h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Petra Marcinko vs Kimberly Birrell	BUY Kimberly Birrell	70¢	$91	30h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Arthur Fery vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo	BUY Juan Manuel Cerundolo	66¢	$194	32h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $977.65 · official $977.65 (match) · 10 history records