Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T16:22:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
50 0x50e5…80cc crypto 40 markets active 1h ago coverage 59d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$24 (-2%) realized −$23 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate62%24W / 15L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$39per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$183now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$64
7 days+$88
14 days+$88
30 days−$62
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 44% −$1
world 18% +$14
politics 11% −$43
finance 10% −$18
crypto 9% −$1
tech 7% +$16
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-20.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +19.9% +8.5% 100% 50% +10.7%
≤30d 36 -11.8% -20.2% 61% 42% -14.4%
≤90d 39 -12.4% -20.7% 62% 44% -11.6%
all 39 -12.4% -20.7% 62% 44% -11.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.7% 44% -11.6%
10% -28.3% 28% -20.0%
15% -35.2% 10% -27.8%
20% -41.6% 8% -34.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 54% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$14 · ×0.53 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

59d coverage
Net worth$183
Realized−$23
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses24 / 15
Open positions1
Markets (closed)39 / 40
History coverage59d
Avg bet$39
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 39 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Yes 86¢ 86¢ $184 $183 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $121 +$64 +53%
Kai Havertz: 2+ goals Jun 20 $94 +$8 +8%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $90 +$5 +5%
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 20 $10 +$1 +8%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele Jun 20 $5 +$2 +32%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in June? Jun 20 $73 +$9 +13%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 08 $2 +$1 +29%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 08 $2 +$2 +86%
BNB Up or Down - June 8, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 08 $2 −$2 -98%
BNB Up or Down - June 8, 12PM ET Jun 08 $25 −$25 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 8, 12PM ET Jun 08 $2 −$2 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 12PM ET Jun 08 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12PM ET Jun 08 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 07 $4 −$4 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 07 $4 −$2 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 07 $2 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 07 $2 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 07 $2 +$1 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 06 $4 +$1 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 06 $2 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 06 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 06 $2 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 06 $2 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 06 $2 +$1 +65%
Will Apple release a foldable iPhone before 2027? Jun 06 $43 −$1 -2%
Will Park Wan-soo win the 2026 Gyeongsangnam Province Gubernatorial El Jun 04 $51 −$26 -52%
Will Choo Kyung-ho win the 2026 Daegu mayoral election? Jun 04 $50 +$11 +21%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 01 $10 −$1 -8%
Ethereum Up or Down on May 30? May 30 $10 +$1 +14%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May? May 29 $22 +$2 +10%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May? May 29 $68 −$29 -43%
Will Caroline Elliott win the 2026 Conservative Party of British Colum May 28 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Apple (AAPL) hit (HIGH) $312 in May? May 27 $67 +$17 +26%
Will Andrea Martella win the 2026 Venice mayoral election? May 26 $50 −$50 -100%
Nothing Ever Happens: May May 25 $255 −$45 -18%
Will DISY win the most seats at the Cyprus House of Representatives el May 25 $50 +$16 +32%
Will Plaid Cymru win the most seats in the 2026 Welsh Senedd election? May 03 $11 −$11 -97%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 02 $20 +$5 +25%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets in April? May 02 $206 +$36 +18%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 86¢ $184 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $184 21h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 65¢ $102 44h
Kai Havertz: 2+ goals SELL No 100¢ $102 2d
Kai Havertz: 2+ goals BUY No 92¢ $94 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 63¢ $18 2d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 82¢ $11 2d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele SELL Yes 89¢ $7 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 95¢ $90 2d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in June? SELL No 99¢ $83 2d
BNB Up or Down - June 8, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $2 14d
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $2 14d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $2 15d
BNB Up or Down - June 8, 12PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $25 15d
Solana Up or Down - June 8, 12PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $2 15d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 12PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $2 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $5 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $2 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $2 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $2 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $2 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $2 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $2 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $2 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $2 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $2 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $2 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $5 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $2 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $2 16d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $182.55 · official $182.55 (match) · 76 history records