Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T23:10:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

50
0x50e6…d20f
crypto · 20 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
+$1 +3%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$7 · open +$8
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ Small sample
Net worth$20
Realized−$7
Unrealized+$8
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses3 / 6
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions11
Markets (closed)9 / 20
History coverage31d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%
Chart Positions 11 History 9 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Yes 14¢ 100¢ $1 $7 +$6 (+614%)
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Yes 26¢ 36¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+37%)
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 2 Morocco? Yes 12¢ $1 $3 +$2 (+156%)
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Yes 47¢ 100¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+112%)
Knicks vs. Spurs Knicks 36¢ 36¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 17¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will Lamine Yamal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-10%)
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-17%)
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? No 37¢ 27¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-26%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? No 38¢ 18¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-51%)
Will Trump say "Tariff" during events with Xi Jinping? Yes 57¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Up 34¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Yes $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Down 31¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Trump say "Tariff" during events with Xi Jinping? May 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET May 13 $6 −$6 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 13, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET May 13 $1 +$1 +55%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 13, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET May 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET May 13 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET May 13 $5 +$3 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET May 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET May 13 $1 +$1 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET May 13 $1 −$1 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 57% −$6
other 20% $0
sports 17% +$8
politics 3% −$1
world 3% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-49.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d 9 -44.1% -49.4% 33% 33% -42.5%
all 9 -44.1% -49.4% 33% 33% -42.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -49.4% 33% -42.5%
10% -54.2% 33% -48.0%
15% -58.7% 33% -53.0%
20% -62.7% 33% -57.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $19.53 · official $19.54 (match) · 28 history records