Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T05:38:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
50 0x50e6…cc2c other 115 markets active 2h ago coverage 133d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$1,412 (-1%) realized −$1,412 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate25%29W / 85L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$909per market
Trades / day1.8pace
Fees−$19est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$666now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$10
14 days−$13
30 days−$32
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 41% −$115
politics 31% −$56
sports 17% −$1,229
culture 4% −$6
tech 3% $0
world 2% −$23
crypto 1% +$2
economics 1% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-11.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -0.1% -9.6% 11% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 25 -0.1% -9.6% 8% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 65 -13.9% -22.1% 6% 0% -11.5%
all 114 -1.8% -11.1% 25% 10% -10.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.1% 10% -10.8%
10% -19.6% 10% -19.3%
15% -27.4% 7% -27.1%
20% -34.5% 4% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
62% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,253) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +4% → late -7% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$20 · ×0.44 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.15 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

133d coverage
Net worth$666
Realized−$1,412
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses29 / 85
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$19
Open positions1
Markets (closed)114 / 115
History coverage133d
Avg bet$909
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 114 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $666 $666 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 19 $387 −$1 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 18 $870 −$1 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 18 $1,053 −$1 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Jun 17 $450 +$3 +1%
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 14 $548 −$1 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $1,271 −$1 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 13 $2,889 −$3 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 13 $1,156 −$2 -0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 12 $1,172 −$2 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 07 $1,076 −$1 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 06 $1,068 −$2 -0%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 04 $1,204 −$2 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 04 $3,031 −$3 -0%
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 04 $992 −$2 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 03 $1,003 −$2 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in May? Jun 03 $618 +$2 +0%
Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 31 $665 −$1 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 28 $1,526 −$2 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? May 28 $625 −$1 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? May 28 $499 −$1 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 27 $628 −$1 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 24 $817 −$1 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 24 $1,950 −$2 -0%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 24 $897 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 23 $1,506 −$2 -0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju May 07 $1,670 −$2 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 07 $1,634 −$2 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 07 $1,543 −$2 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 06 $1,552 −$2 -0%
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? May 04 $1,224 −$2 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 01 $2,258 −$2 -0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 01 $864 −$1 -0%
Will Alibaba have the #1 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Cont May 01 $943 +$2 +0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? Apr 30 $512 −$1 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 29 $612 −$1 -0%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 28 $414 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 27 $811 −$1 -0%
Will Han Dong-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 22 $1,180 −$1 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 22 $3,836 −$4 -0%
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026? Apr 20 $1,465 −$1 -0%
Will Park Yong-jin win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 19 $1,667 −$2 -0%
Will the Phoenix Suns win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 19 $5,753 −$6 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $3,979 −$4 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 18 $1,655 −$2 -0%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 17 $1,277 −$1 -0%
Will Park Ju-min win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 17 $1,384 −$1 -0%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? Apr 16 $1,572 −$2 -0%
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 16 $2,546 −$3 -0%
Will Na Kyung-won win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 15 $1,628 −$2 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 14 $1,387 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $386 1h
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $387 2h
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $869 21h
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $870 22h
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,051 23h
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,053 26h
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $667 47h
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $547 4d
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $548 5d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $1,270 5d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $1,271 5d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,270 5d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,271 6d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,155 6d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,156 6d
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,170 6d
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,172 6d
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,075 11d
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,076 12d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,066 12d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,068 12d
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,203 14d
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,204 14d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $816 14d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $817 14d
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $990 15d
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 99¢ $992 15d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,002 15d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,003 15d
Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $664 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $666.10 · official $666.10 (match) · 306 history records