Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:53:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
50 0x50e7…6440 crypto 1551 markets active 2h ago coverage 17d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 17d only
✗ bot/MM pace (134 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$633 (-4%) realized −$633 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate56%946W / 734L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day134.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,889
7 days−$1,990
14 days−$2,026
30 days−$1,379
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$505
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (134 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-15.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 857 -21.3% -28.8% 44% 39% -30.6%
≤30d 1680 -6.5% -15.4% 56% 42% -16.9%
≤90d 1680 -6.5% -15.4% 56% 42% -16.9%
all 1680 -6.5% -15.4% 56% 42% -16.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover134.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.4% 42% -16.9%
10% ← realistic here -23.5% 31% -24.9%
15% -30.9% 23% -32.1%
20% -37.7% 15% -38.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +9% → late -22% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$7 · ×0.58 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.74 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

17d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$633
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses946 / 734
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1680 / 1551
History coverage17d ⚠
Avg bet$10
Trades / day134.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1680 Trades
no open positions (500 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 17 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 17 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 17 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 17 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 17 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 17 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $9 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $9 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $6 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Down 18¢ $7 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $0 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $6 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $4 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $10 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $10 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $9 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $10 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $6 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $4 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $1 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $9 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $9 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $10 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $10 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $5 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $5 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records