Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T16:27:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

50
0x50e9…1ea5
crypto · 609 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$31 -2%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$40 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$122
Realized−$40
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses276 / 268
Open positions65
Markets (closed)544 / 609
History coverage237d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day3.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%
Chart Positions 65 History 544 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days−$27
14 days−$21
30 days−$20
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 89¢ 82¢ $32 $29 −$3 (-9%)
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? No 39¢ 46¢ $7 $8 +$1 (+19%)
US x China tariff agreement by June 30? No 79¢ 96¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+21%)
Will Donald Trump visit India in 2026? No 74¢ 72¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-2%)
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? Yes 35¢ 41¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+19%)
US recession by end of 2026? No 80¢ 84¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+4%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 59¢ 84¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+42%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? No 37¢ 50¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+35%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? No 38¢ 98¢ $1 $3 +$2 (+158%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? No 78¢ 92¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+18%)
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 83¢ 91¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+9%)
Will Donald Trump visit North Korea in 2026? No 82¢ 86¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+5%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? No 15¢ 30¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+97%)
Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in June? No 62¢ 60¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-4%)
Will Donald Trump visit Pakistan in 2026? No 81¢ 77¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-5%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? No 23¢ 38¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+67%)
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? No 33¢ 27¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-19%)
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? Yes 43¢ 66¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+55%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? No 31¢ 42¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+34%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? No 22¢ 28¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+27%)
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Yes 41¢ 50¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+21%)
GTA 6 launch postponed again? Yes 18¢ 21¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+17%)
US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31? No 47¢ 26¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-44%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026? No 59¢ 66¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+13%)
Will Donald Trump visit Mexico in 2026? No 78¢ 88¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of June? Jun 13 $1 $0 +47%
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,200 by end of June? Jun 11 $3 $0 +11%
Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 25-June 1? Jun 10 $2 +$1 +47%
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 24, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 22, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 23, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 22, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 24, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 22, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on June 2? Jun 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 36°C on June 2? Jun 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 24, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on June 2? Jun 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 22, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 23, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? Jun 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 22, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 2? Jun 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Ukraine hits Moscow by December 31? Jun 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Tucker Carlson by May 31, 2026? Jun 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 23, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 08 $2 −$2 -100%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? Jun 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 2? Jun 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Google have the top AI model on December 31? Jun 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 1? Jun 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on June 2? Jun 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 2? Jun 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Marjorie Taylor Greene by May 31, 20 Jun 08 $2 −$2 -100%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $96 on June 3? Jun 05 $1 +$1 +82%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 2? Jun 03 $1 $0 +28%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 2? Jun 03 $1 +$1 +61%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 25°C on June 2? Jun 03 $1 +$1 +81%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on June 1? Jun 02 $1 $0 +21%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 1? Jun 02 $1 +$3 +271%
Internet Access restored in Iran by June 30, 2026? Jun 01 $1 $0 +27%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? May 27 $1 $0 +43%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 8, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET May 27 $6 −$3 -47%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 9, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET May 27 $3 +$1 +18%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 8, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET May 27 $3 +$1 +29%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 8, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET May 27 $5 $0 -2%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 7, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET May 27 $8 +$2 +27%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 7, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jan 07 $9 −$4 -45%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 7, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jan 07 $12 +$2 +18%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 7, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jan 07 $10 +$6 +57%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 7, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jan 07 $15 +$2 +14%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 7, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jan 07 $10 −$1 -12%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 7, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jan 07 $10 −$5 -49%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 23, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jan 07 $1 $0 +12%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 23, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jan 07 $1 $0 +14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 86% −$25
world 7% −$3
politics 3% −$3
other 2% −$1
weather 1% −$3
tech 1% −$5
finance 0% +$1
economics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 63¢ $1 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $32 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? BUY No 38¢ $1 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 60¢ $1 1h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 35¢ $5 10h
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,200 by end of June? BUY Yes 90¢ $3 4d
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm ele BUY Yes 82¢ $1 9d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 50¢ $1 9d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY No 70¢ $1 9d
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $96 on June 3? BUY Yes 54¢ $1 11d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31? BUY No 74¢ $1 11d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 80¢ $1 11d
Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of BUY Yes 60¢ $1 12d
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by December 31? BUY No 85¢ $1 12d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 70¢ $1 12d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? BUY No 84¢ $1 12d
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 25°C on June 2? BUY Yes 54¢ $1 12d
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 36°C on June 2? BUY Yes 70¢ $1 12d
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on June 2? BUY Yes 61¢ $1 12d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 2? BUY Yes 61¢ $1 12d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 2? BUY Yes 77¢ $1 12d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on June 2? BUY Yes 75¢ $1 12d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on June 2? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 12d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 2? BUY Yes 27¢ $1 12d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 2? BUY Yes 45¢ $1 12d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 2? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 12d
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 1? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 13d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 1? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 13d
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on June 1? BUY Yes 82¢ $1 13d
US x Cuba economic deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $1 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 -86.0% -87.4% 10% 10% -79.5%
≤30d 42 -44.2% -49.5% 33% 33% -36.0%
≤90d 42 -44.2% -49.5% 33% 33% -36.0%
all 544 -0.1% -9.7% 51% 42% -12.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover3.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 42% -12.2%
10% -18.3% 34% -20.6%
15% -26.2% 29% -28.3%
20% -33.4% 26% -35.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $122.03 · official $122.23 (match) · 1377 history records