Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T12:19:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
50 0x50eb…7a5c other 123 markets active 1h ago coverage 155d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$1,708 (+1%) realized +$1,708 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate20%25W / 97L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown46%max
Avg bet$1,009per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$835now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$17
14 days−$27
30 days+$45
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 48% +$1,581
politics 33% −$54
sports 9% +$87
economics 3% $0
culture 3% −$5
crypto 2% +$101
world 1% −$32
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-15.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 24 +1.3% -8.4% 12% 4% -9.4%
≤90d 57 +3.5% -6.3% 9% 5% -7.3%
all 122 -6.8% -15.7% 20% 11% -8.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.7% 11% -8.3%
10% -23.8% 10% -17.1%
15% -31.1% 7% -25.1%
20% -37.9% 6% -32.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 68% · top 2 81% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
44% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,498) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -12% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$114 vs −$12 · ×9.41 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.43 per $1 lost it wins $2.43
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

155d coverage
Net worth$835
Realized+$1,708
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses25 / 97
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions1
Markets (closed)122 / 123
History coverage155d
Avg bet$1,009
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown46%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 122 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $834 $835 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 17 $1,810 −$2 -0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 13 $786 −$1 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 13 $1,238 −$2 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 11 $8,261 −$9 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 11 $1,456 −$2 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 10 $1,076 −$1 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 07 $1,052 −$2 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 06 $2,100 −$3 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 05 $2,820 −$4 -0%
Will Toni Atkins win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 02 $2,435 −$3 -0%
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 02 $1,628 −$3 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 02 $1,198 −$2 -0%
Will Solana dip to $50 in May? Jun 02 $1,162 +$4 +0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 01 $2,846 −$4 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in May? Jun 01 $924 +$1 +0%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 31 $1,086 −$2 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET May 31 $67 −$67 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET May 31 $105 −$105 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET May 30 $114 +$266 +233%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 26 $2,613 −$3 -0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 26 $1,674 −$3 -0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 25 $1,645 −$3 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 23 $1,585 −$3 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin May 23 $1,560 −$3 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 11 $1,675 −$2 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 09 $1,632 −$2 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 09 $1,614 −$2 -0%
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 09 $1,584 −$2 -0%
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? May 08 $1,682 −$3 -0%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-03? May 07 $1,354 +$1,946 +144%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 22 $1,498 −$2 -0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 22 $1,401 −$1 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $4,303 −$4 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 17 $2,410 −$2 -0%
Will Na Kyung-won win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 16 $1,033 −$1 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $3,290 −$2 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 11 $4,757 −$6 -0%
Spread: FC Bayern München (-1.5) Apr 10 $1,151 +$353 +31%
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? Mar 28 $982 −$1 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Mar 28 $1,006 −$1 -0%
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026? Mar 26 $903 −$2 -0%
Will Moldova win Eurovision 2026? Mar 25 $1,003 −$1 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 25 $969 −$1 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 25 $1,939 −$2 -0%
Will Byeong Hun An win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 25 $945 −$1 -0%
Will Stephen Miran be confirmed as Fed Chair? Mar 24 $908 $0 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 24 $1,902 −$2 -0%
Will Denny McCarthy win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 24 $988 −$1 -0%
Will Nicolai Hojgaard win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 23 $903 −$1 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 22 $991 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $648 1h
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $649 3h
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $834 7h
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $785 3d
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $786 4d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,236 4d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,238 4d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,448 6d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,449 6d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,170 6d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,171 6d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,454 6d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,456 6d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,074 7d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,076 7d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,050 10d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,052 10d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,018 11d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,020 11d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,127 12d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,129 12d
Will Toni Atkins win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $818 15d
Will Toni Atkins win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $819 15d
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,625 15d
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,628 15d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,196 15d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,198 15d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,181 16d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,183 16d
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $1,085 17d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $834.52 · official $834.52 (match) · 409 history records