Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T03:42:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
50 0x50ed…dda6 crypto 345 markets active 2h ago coverage 124d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$58 (+1%) realized −$38 · open +$96
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -26% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate26%84W / 236L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day3.7pace
Fees−$16est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$290now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$116
7 days−$240
14 days−$330
30 days−$20
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 81% −$308
sports 14% +$124
other 5% −$158
politics 0% +$11
world 0% −$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-33.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 57 -28.0% -34.9% 30% 30% -27.4%
≤30d 133 -0.1% -9.6% 31% 31% -9.1%
≤90d 256 -19.8% -27.4% 29% 29% -10.3%
all 320 -26.2% -33.2% 26% 26% -16.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -33.2% 26% -16.9%
10% -39.6% 25% -24.8%
15% -45.5% 24% -32.1%
20% -50.8% 23% -38.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -26% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -46% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$29 vs −$12 · ×2.38 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

124d coverage
Net worth$290
Realized−$38
Unrealized+$96
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses84 / 236
Est. fees paid−$16
Open positions3
Markets (closed)320 / 345
History coverage124d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day3.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 320 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? Yes 46¢ 72¢ $180 $284 +$104 (+58%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 28? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+5%)
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-27? Yes 4¢ 1¢ $10 $1 −$8 (-85%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 213 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $112 −$110 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 26 $4 +$4 +90%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 26? Jun 26 $1 −$1 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 26? Jun 26 $13 −$12 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 26? Jun 26 $2 −$2 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 26? Jun 26 $4 −$4 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 26? Jun 26 $11 −$10 -94%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $8 +$24 +291%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 25 $51 −$50 -98%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 25? Jun 25 $21 −$15 -71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 25 $5 −$4 -96%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 25? Jun 25 $3 −$3 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 25? Jun 25 $13 −$12 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 25? Jun 25 $5 −$5 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 25? Jun 25 $24 −$23 -95%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $56 −$55 -99%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 24? Jun 24 $5 −$4 -81%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 24? Jun 24 $18 +$93 +515%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 24? Jun 24 $11 −$10 -94%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 24 $20 −$20 -98%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 23 $132 +$151 +114%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 23? Jun 23 $2 −$2 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 23? Jun 23 $22 −$20 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 23? Jun 23 $7 −$7 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 23? Jun 23 $44 −$20 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 23 $16 −$15 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 23 $8 +$7 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 23 $4 +$4 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 23 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 23 $40 −$34 -85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 23 $3 +$2 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 23 $57 −$22 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 23 $40 +$36 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 23 $23 −$22 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 23 $32 +$30 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 23 $41 −$10 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 23 $21 +$21 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 23 $11 −$11 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 23 $6 +$6 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 23 $13 −$8 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 23 $19 −$5 -27%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $10 +$9 +97%
Spread: Algeria (-1.5) Jun 23 $61 −$48 -78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 23 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 23 $2 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 23 $1 +$1 +97%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $5 −$1 -16%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $5 +$1 +18%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 4¢ $10 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 28? BUY Yes 3¢ $5 1h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-27? AND Will Jordan vs. Argentina end in a BUY 3¢ $5 1h
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) AND Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? BUY 17¢ $17 1h
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 46¢ $183 1h
Will DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? AND Will England win on 20 BUY 5¢ $5 18h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 49¢ $112 18h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? BUY 26¢ $30 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 44h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 26? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 44h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 26? BUY Yes 7¢ $2 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $4 45h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 26? BUY No 1¢ $2 46h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 26? BUY No 3¢ $4 47h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 26? BUY No 11¢ $11 47h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 26? BUY Yes 6¢ $11 47h
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? AND Will Paraguay vs. Au BUY 10¢ $2 2d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 25¢ $8 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? AND Will Ecuador win on 2026-06- BUY 11¢ $15 2d
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Germany 37¢ $51 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 25? SELL No 100¢ $76 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $5 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 25? BUY Yes 31¢ $16 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 25? BUY No 0¢ $3 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 25? BUY No 4¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $5 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 25? BUY Yes 1¢ $3 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 25? BUY No 7¢ $5 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 25? BUY Yes 36¢ $16 2d
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 AND Spread: Mexico (-1.5) BUY 30¢ $6 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $290.44 · official $290.44 (match) · 558 history records