Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T05:37:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
50 0x50ee…698b crypto 134 markets active 0h ago coverage 6d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (79 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$221 (+5%) realized +$221 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR71%break-even
Win rate85%114W / 20L
Drawdown64%max
Avg bet$34per market
Trades / day79.1pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% +$287
other 2% +$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (79 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +71%
net ROI/market (all)+8.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 134 +20.4% +8.9% 85% 71% -3.5%
≤30d 134 +20.4% +8.9% 85% 71% -3.5%
≤90d 134 +20.4% +8.9% 85% 71% -3.5%
all 134 +20.4% +8.9% 85% 71% -3.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover79.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +8.9% 71% -3.5%
10% ← realistic here -1.5% 36% -12.7%
15% -11.0% 12% -21.1%
20% -19.8% 6% -28.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +20% · $-wt +7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +8% → late +33% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$30 · ×0.26 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.49 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$221
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)85%
Wins / losses114 / 20
Open positions0
Markets (closed)134 / 134
History coverage6d
Avg bet$34
Trades / day79.1
Drawdown64%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 134 Trades
no open positions (20 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 18 $50 +$3 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 18 $50 +$28 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 18 $10 +$3 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 18 $205 +$64 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 18 $204 −$52 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 18 $148 +$49 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 18 $44 −$43 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 18 $51 +$9 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 18 $101 +$15 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 18 $10 +$2 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 18 $20 +$4 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 18 $41 +$9 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 18 $21 +$4 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 17 $65 +$15 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 17 $21 +$12 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 17 $21 +$7 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 17 $40 +$12 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 17 $40 +$16 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 17 $84 +$23 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 17 $82 +$14 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 17 $41 +$16 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 17 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 17 $82 +$26 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 17 $25 +$3 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 17 $83 +$42 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 17 $79 −$79 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 17 $20 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 17 $81 −$81 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 17 $60 +$8 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 17 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 17 $20 +$3 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 17 $41 +$9 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 17 $42 +$11 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 17 $61 +$8 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 17 $20 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 17 $21 +$9 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 17 $60 +$10 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 17 $21 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 17 $41 +$9 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 17 $21 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 17 $20 +$3 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 16 $20 +$7 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 16 $21 +$4 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 16 $20 +$4 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 16 $21 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 16 $20 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 16 $20 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 16 $20 +$4 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 16 $82 +$30 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$1 +9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $50 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $3 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $32 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $6 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $6 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $2 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET SELL Up 89¢ $49 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $22 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $33 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $3 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.71 · official $0.00 (match) · 593 history records