Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T11:01:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
50 0x50f1…e6f4 other 152 markets active 1h ago coverage 150d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$2,303 (-2%) realized −$2,304 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate26%40W / 111L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$973per market
Trades / day2.5pace
Fees−$37est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$368now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$11
14 days−$17
30 days−$121
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 39% −$422
politics 39% −$66
sports 14% −$1,832
culture 5% −$9
world 2% −$10
economics 1% $0
crypto 1% +$2
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-17.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -0.1% -9.6% 11% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 36 -3.9% -13.1% 11% 3% -9.8%
≤90d 69 -5.9% -14.9% 12% 3% -10.7%
all 151 -8.3% -17.1% 26% 7% -11.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.1% 7% -11.0%
10% -25.0% 7% -19.5%
15% -32.2% 5% -27.3%
20% -38.9% 2% -34.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 69% · top 2 76% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
75% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,486) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -11% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$29 · ×0.68 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.25 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

150d coverage
Net worth$368
Realized−$2,304
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses40 / 111
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$37
Open positions1
Markets (closed)151 / 152
History coverage150d
Avg bet$973
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 151 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $92,500 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $366 $368 +$1 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 23 $1,138 −$2 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Jun 23 $2,468 −$3 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 22 $312 −$1 -0%
Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 22 $212 $0 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 21 $1,906 −$3 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Jun 17 $459 +$1 +0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 17 $431 −$1 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 17 $389 −$1 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 16 $1,958 −$2 -0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? Jun 16 $497 −$1 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 15 $426 −$1 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 14 $902 −$1 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 14 $424 −$1 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 10 $2,522 −$3 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $2,510 −$3 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 09 $1,486 −$2 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 08 $2,229 −$2 -0%
Will the New York Jets win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 07 $775 −$1 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 06 $3,357 −$4 -0%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 06 $45 −$45 -100%
Cleveland Guardians vs. New York Yankees Jun 06 $65 +$41 +62%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 03 $2,392 −$3 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 02 $636 −$1 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 02 $1,706 −$2 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 02 $4,866 −$5 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in May? Jun 02 $50 $0 +0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 01 $2,698 −$3 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 01 $531 −$1 -0%
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? Jun 01 $194 $0 +0%
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 29 $584 −$1 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 29 $524 −$1 -0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 27 $3,241 −$3 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 27 $560 −$1 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 25 $562 −$1 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 25 $560 −$1 -0%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Philadelphia Phillies May 25 $66 −$66 -100%
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 215.5 May 23 $38 −$38 -100%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 22 $904 −$1 -0%
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? May 21 $888 −$1 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 21 $893 −$1 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 21 $3,232 −$3 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? May 20 $1,028 −$2 -0%
Spread: Cavaliers (-8.5) May 08 $1,530 −$1,530 -100%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 22 $1,488 −$1 -0%
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? Apr 20 $1,486 −$1 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 20 $1,358 −$1 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $2,807 −$3 -0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 18 $1,540 −$2 -0%
Will Moldova win Eurovision 2026? Apr 17 $1,428 −$1 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 17 $2,214 −$2 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $710 30m
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $711 1h
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin SELL No 99¢ $573 3h
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin BUY No 99¢ $574 5h
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $311 24h
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $312 26h
Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $212 30h
Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $212 31h
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $260 2d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $260 2d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $431 6d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $431 6d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $388 6d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $389 6d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $484 6d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $485 7d
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $497 7d
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $497 7d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $426 8d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $426 8d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin SELL No 99¢ $447 8d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin BUY No 99¢ $447 8d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $292 8d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $293 9d
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $423 9d
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $424 9d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $426 10d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $427 10d
Will Bitcoin reach $92,500 in June? BUY No 100¢ $367 11d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $530 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $367.55 · official $367.55 (match) · 498 history records