Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T02:32:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
50 0x50f2…e55a sports 34 markets active 2h ago coverage 43d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$131 (-22%) realized −$119 · open −$12
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -39% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -44% what you keep after slip
Net edge-44%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate30%10W / 23L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$17now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$26
7 days+$26
14 days+$26
30 days−$25
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 53% +$26
sports 36% −$119
crypto 10% −$62
politics 1% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-44.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +4.8% -5.2% 67% 50% -2.2%
≤30d 27 -24.9% -32.1% 37% 30% -14.7%
≤90d 33 -38.6% -44.4% 30% 24% -32.9%
all 33 -38.6% -44.4% 30% 24% -32.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -44.4% 24% -32.9%
10% -49.8% 21% -39.3%
15% -54.6% 21% -45.2%
20% -59.1% 18% -50.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 53% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -26% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -39% · $-wt -26% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -67% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$12 · ×1.05 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.45 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

43d coverage
Net worth$17
Realized−$119
Unrealized−$12
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses10 / 23
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)33 / 34
History coverage43d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 33 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Yes 31¢ 18¢ $29 $17 −$12 (-40%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 21 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $121 +$9 +7%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 18 $21 −$20 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $60 +$34 +57%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $24 +$24 +97%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $46 +$31 +67%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $51 −$51 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 04 $10 −$10 -96%
Will Colombia win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $13 −$1 -7%
Will DR Congo vs. Denmark end in a draw? Jun 03 $3 +$10 +324%
Will Netherlands vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 03 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Gibraltar vs. British Virgin Islands end in a draw? Jun 03 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Albania vs. Israel end in a draw? Jun 03 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Georgia vs. Romania end in a draw? Jun 02 $3 +$8 +250%
Will Romania win on 2026-06-02? Jun 02 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Haiti vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 02 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Morocco vs. Madagascar end in a draw? Jun 02 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Croatia vs. Belgium end in a draw? Jun 02 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-01? Jun 02 $13 +$2 +14%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-01? Jun 01 $10 +$4 +38%
Will Austria vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 01 $5 $0 +9%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-01? Jun 01 $2 +$2 +70%
Norway vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 01 $22 −$21 -99%
Will Colombia vs. Costa Rica end in a draw? Jun 01 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Canada vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? Jun 01 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Türkiye vs. North Macedonia end in a draw? Jun 01 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Bulgaria vs. Montenegro end in a draw? Jun 01 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Slovakia vs. Malta end in a draw? Jun 01 $5 −$5 -98%
Rainbow Six Siege: ENTERPRISE Esports vs Shopify Rebellion (BO3) - BLA May 12 $29 −$26 -89%
Rainbow Six Siege: Falcons Esport vs Ninjas in Pyjamas (BO3) - BLAST R May 12 $20 −$20 -98%
Rainbow Six Siege: ENTERPRISE Esports vs Falcons Esport (BO1) - BLAST May 11 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Trump visit China by May 15? May 07 $4 −$4 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 6, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET May 06 $32 −$32 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on May 6? May 06 $21 −$20 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $30 1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 93¢ $121 4h
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 16¢ $21 4h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $60 16h
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $24 16h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 59¢ $46 31h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $51 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $5 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $5 14d
Will Colombia win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 30¢ $12 14d
Will Colombia win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 31¢ $13 15d
Will DR Congo vs. Denmark end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $13 15d
Will Netherlands vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $2 15d
Will DR Congo vs. Denmark end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $3 15d
Will Gibraltar vs. British Virgin Islands end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $3 15d
Will Albania vs. Israel end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $3 15d
Will Romania win on 2026-06-02? BUY Yes 29¢ $3 16d
Will Haiti vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $3 16d
Will Georgia vs. Romania end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $3 16d
Will Morocco vs. Madagascar end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $3 16d
Will Croatia vs. Belgium end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $3 16d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-01? BUY Yes 87¢ $13 17d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-01? SELL Yes 100¢ $14 17d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-01? BUY Yes 72¢ $10 17d
Will Austria vs. Tunisia end in a draw? SELL Yes 24¢ $6 17d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-01? SELL Yes 100¢ $4 17d
Norway vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY No 52¢ $22 17d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-01? BUY Yes 58¢ $2 17d
Will Austria vs. Tunisia end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $5 17d
Will Colombia vs. Costa Rica end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 17d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $17.31 · official $17.31 (match) · 53 history records