Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T08:43:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
50 0x50f4…b9eb crypto 1663 markets active 0h ago coverage 126d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 125d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$232 (-6%) realized −$239 · open +$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate42%696W / 964L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day15.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$13now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$18
7 days+$34
14 days+$30
30 days+$33
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 95% −$281
weather 5% +$39
world 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-14.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 +52.8% +38.3% 76% 57% +19.3%
≤30d 61 +11.8% +1.1% 57% 44% +3.4%
≤90d 1020 -47.9% -52.8% 27% 26% -47.6%
all 1660 -5.4% -14.4% 42% 41% -15.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.4% 41% -15.1%
10% -22.6% 40% -23.2%
15% -30.1% 38% -30.6%
20% -37.0% 37% -37.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 1% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -42% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +25% → late -36% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$2 · ×1.23 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

126d coverage
Net worth$13
Realized−$239
Unrealized+$7
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses696 / 964
Open positions3
Markets (closed)1660 / 1663
History coverage126d ⚠
Avg bet$2
Trades / day15.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 1660 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 28°C on June 17? Yes 11¢ 34¢ $3 $9 +$6 (+214%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 32°C on June 18? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 33°C on June 18? Yes 2¢ 4¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+86%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 21 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 29°C on June 17? Jun 17 $1 +$2 +188%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 16? Jun 16 $27 +$12 +45%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on June 16? Jun 16 $7 +$1 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 20°C on June 16? Jun 16 $1 $0 +37%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on June 15? Jun 15 $5 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 15? Jun 15 $7 +$3 +45%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on June 16? Jun 15 $2 −$1 -43%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on June 14? Jun 14 $7 +$6 +88%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 +$1 +58%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 20°C on June 14? Jun 14 $11 +$1 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C or higher on June 13? Jun 13 $0 $0 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on June 13? Jun 13 $3 +$1 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on June 13? Jun 12 $2 $0 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 17°C on June 12? Jun 12 $7 +$8 +101%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 16°C on June 12? Jun 12 $9 −$2 -22%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 14°C on June 12? Jun 12 $7 +$1 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 16°C on June 11? Jun 11 $5 $0 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 15°C on June 11? Jun 11 $5 +$1 +23%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 18°C on June 11? Jun 10 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 13°C on June 10? Jun 10 $1 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 14°C on June 10? Jun 10 $0 +$1 +178%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 12°C on June 10? Jun 09 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 15°C on June 10? Jun 09 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 16°C on June 10? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 18°C on June 9? Jun 09 $19 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 16°C on June 9? Jun 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 28°C on June 8? Jun 08 $6 +$2 +30%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C on June 8? Jun 08 $5 −$3 -64%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 30°C on June 8? Jun 08 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 29°C on June 8? Jun 08 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on June 7? Jun 08 $13 +$1 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 7? Jun 07 $1 $0 -27%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on June 7? Jun 07 $1 $0 +32%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 7? Jun 07 $5 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on June 6? Jun 07 $2 +$1 +28%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C or higher on June 6? Jun 06 $1 +$2 +167%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 20°C on June 5? Jun 05 $5 +$3 +51%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 18°C on June 5? Jun 05 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on June 4? Jun 04 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 18°C on June 3? Jun 04 $8 +$2 +21%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 19°C on June 3? Jun 03 $5 −$1 -10%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 17°C on June 3? Jun 03 $1 −$1 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 03 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 03 $4 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 03 $2 $0 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 03 $2 +$3 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 03 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 03 $2 +$3 +122%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 03 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 02 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 28°C on June 17? SELL Yes 36¢ $2 1m
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 28°C on June 17? SELL Yes 36¢ $5 4m
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 33°C on June 18? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 35m
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 32°C on June 18? BUY Yes 12¢ $4 49m
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 29°C on June 17? SELL Yes 7¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 29°C on June 17? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 10h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 29°C on June 17? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 11h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 29°C on June 17? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 11h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 29°C on June 17? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 12h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 29°C on June 17? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 12h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 16? SELL Yes 95¢ $25 18h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 28°C on June 17? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 18h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 28°C on June 17? BUY Yes 11¢ $3 18h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 16? BUY Yes 75¢ $20 20h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $5 21h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 16? SELL Yes 61¢ $13 21h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on June 16? BUY No 73¢ $1 21h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on June 16? BUY No 77¢ $3 21h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on June 16? SELL Yes 36¢ $3 22h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 16? BUY Yes 27¢ $6 24h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 16? BUY Yes 24¢ $0 24h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 20°C on June 16? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 24h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on June 16? BUY Yes 37¢ $3 24h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 20°C on June 16? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 24h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 20°C on June 16? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 24h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 16? SELL No 71¢ $1 24h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on June 15? SELL No 87¢ $4 41h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on June 15? BUY No 86¢ $4 42h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 15? SELL No 92¢ $5 42h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 15? BUY No 80¢ $4 42h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $13.20 · official $13.21 (match) · 3500 history records