Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T08:00:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
50 0x50f4…5e6a other 307 markets active 1h ago coverage 400d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,036 (+3%) realized +$1,183 · open −$147
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate34%96W / 183L
Whale WR73%big bets
Drawdown32%max
Avg bet$97per market
Trades / day7.0pace
Kalshi-fit54%portable
Net worth$1,741now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$88
7 days+$55
14 days+$87
30 days+$632
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 50% +$2,134
world 26% +$795
other 18% +$133
crypto 2% +$189
tech 2% −$128
finance 1% −$33
culture 1% −$60
sports 0% +$120
economics 0% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-7.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 -4.7% -13.8% 38% 35% -5.7%
≤30d 52 +95.2% +76.6% 40% 35% +3.9%
≤90d 142 -2.3% -11.6% 32% 23% -0.0%
all 279 +2.2% -7.5% 34% 25% +4.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.5% 25% +4.0%
10% -16.4% 21% -5.9%
15% -24.5% 17% -15.0%
20% -31.9% 13% -23.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +11% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 73% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +6% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
7.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$83 vs −$26 · ×3.2 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.7 per $1 lost it wins $1.7
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

400d coverage
Net worth$1,741
Realized+$1,183
Unrealized−$147
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses96 / 183
Whale WR (big bets)73%
Open positions24
Markets (closed)279 / 307
History coverage400d
Avg bet$97
Trades / day7.0
Drawdown32%
Kalshi-fit54%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 24 History 279 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? Yes 30¢ 32¢ $1,061 $1,157 +$96 (+9%)
Will Alexandru Nazare be the next Prime Minister of Romania? Yes 10¢ $705 $479 −$225 (-32%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $69 $59 −$10 (-14%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $12 $14 +$2 (+14%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $5 $6 +$1 (+14%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $6 $6 +$0 (+3%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $6 $5 −$1 (-11%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $5 $4 −$1 (-15%)
Masoud Pezeshkian out by December 31? Yes 25¢ 24¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-2%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026? Yes 39¢ 26¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-32%)
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $3 $2 −$2 (-50%)
Masoud Pezeshkian out by June 30? Yes 10¢ $6 $1 −$6 (-91%)
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? Yes 10¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+6%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-13%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026? Yes 34¢ 32¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-8%)
Will Eugen Tomac be the next Prime Minister of Romania? No 70¢ 99¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+41%)
Will Sorin Grindeanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? No 88¢ 95¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+8%)
Romanian parliament dissolved by July 31? No 93¢ 90¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-3%)
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be an Independent or a Technocrat? Yes 69¢ 34¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-51%)
Will Sorin Grindeanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? Yes $0 $0 −$0 (-18%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $0 $0 +$0 (+29%)
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? No 34¢ 16¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-53%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+29%)
Will Eugen Tomac be the next Prime Minister of Romania? Yes 45¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-98%)
Will Cătălin Predoiu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? Yes $0 $0 −$0 (-57%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 45 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $245 −$7 -3%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $55 −$5 -9%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $7 $0 -4%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $6 +$2 +38%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $41 −$5 -12%
US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31? Jun 15 $16 +$3 +22%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 14 $10 $0 -3%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $8 −$4 -46%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $5 −$1 -13%
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? Jun 14 $10 +$1 +8%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 14 $503 +$92 +18%
Will Ionuț Dumitru be the next Prime Minister of Romania? Jun 14 $12 −$9 -79%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $33 +$19 +58%
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 13 $100 −$2 -2%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 13 $5 +$2 +37%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 13 $5 +$2 +39%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $7 +$7 +105%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 12 $45 −$24 -54%
Will Ciprian Ciucu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? Jun 12 $3 −$1 -17%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -99%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -98%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 12 $22 −$5 -24%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $31 +$10 +33%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 12 $66 −$26 -39%
Will Radu Burnete be the next Prime Minister of Romania? Jun 11 $34 +$11 +31%
Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Jun 11 $13 −$1 -7%
Romanian PM Bolojan out by June 30? Jun 07 $19 −$2 -12%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? Jun 05 $197 −$6 -3%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $182 +$47 +26%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of December? Jun 03 $56 −$7 -12%
Will SpaceX's market cap be greater than $1T at market close on IPO da May 28 $135 −$81 -60%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? May 27 $136 −$3 -2%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,000 by end of June? May 27 $165 +$14 +9%
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026? May 27 $9 $0 -4%
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $90 in May? May 27 $48 +$2 +4%
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? May 27 $87 −$2 -2%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 27 $135 −$16 -12%
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? May 25 $151 −$151 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by May 27? May 24 $30 −$12 -41%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 23 $31 +$32 +102%
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by May 31? May 23 $18 +$34 +185%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? May 23 $47 +$21 +44%
US x Cuba military clash in 2026? May 23 $40 −$7 -16%
Will a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 2027? May 22 $270 −$19 -7%
Will Șerban Matei be the next Prime Minister of Romania? May 22 $91 +$12 +14%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? May 22 $16 −$3 -19%
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be a member of PSD? May 21 $5 +$6 +132%
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by May 22? May 21 $31 +$33 +107%
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by May 31? May 19 $68 −$6 -8%
Will Israel win the televote for Eurovision 2026? May 17 $891 +$487 +55%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? BUY Yes 33¢ $7 1h
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? BUY Yes 33¢ $16 1h
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? BUY Yes 33¢ $13 1h
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? BUY Yes 33¢ $10 1h
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? BUY Yes 34¢ $15 1h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 16¢ $54 1h
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? BUY Yes 36¢ $50 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 16¢ $50 1h
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? BUY Yes 34¢ $15 1h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $22 1h
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? BUY Yes 33¢ $49 3h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $7 3h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $9 3h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $36 3h
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? BUY Yes 35¢ $7 11h
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? BUY Yes 35¢ $32 11h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 11¢ $32 11h
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? BUY Yes 34¢ $3 12h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 76¢ $10 12h
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? BUY Yes 34¢ $8 12h
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $4 12h
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $4 12h
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? BUY Yes 35¢ $12 12h
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? SELL Yes 64¢ $11 12h
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? BUY Yes 35¢ $24 12h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 51¢ $26 12h
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? BUY Yes 35¢ $15 12h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 51¢ $15 12h
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? BUY Yes 37¢ $4 16h
Will Alexandru Nazare be the next Prime Minister of Romania? BUY Yes $2 16h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,741.07 · official $1,758.81 · 3105 history records