Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T08:16:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
50 0x50f5…7943 crypto 109 markets active 0h ago coverage 202d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$157 (+11%) realized +$157 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate27%29W / 80L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$62
7 days−$62
14 days−$62
30 days−$62
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% −$112
other 2% −$16
sports 0% −$7
tech 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-19.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 54 +14.0% +3.2% 31% 31% -18.2%
≤30d 54 +14.0% +3.2% 31% 31% -18.2%
≤90d 106 -10.6% -19.1% 27% 26% -18.0%
all 109 -11.3% -19.7% 27% 26% -18.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.7% 26% -18.0%
10% -27.4% 26% -25.9%
15% -34.4% 26% -33.0%
20% -40.9% 26% -39.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -35% → late +12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$26 vs −$11 · ×2.34 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

202d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$157
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses29 / 80
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)109 / 109
History coverage202d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 109 Trades
no open positions (64 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 24 $81 −$81 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 24 $105 −$100 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 24 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 24 $40 −$38 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 24 $19 −$18 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 24 $45 +$44 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 24 $14 −$13 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 24 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 24 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 24 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 24 $13 −$12 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 24 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 24 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 24 $5 +$20 +374%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 24 $34 +$42 +122%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 24 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 24 $6 +$4 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 24 $10 +$10 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 24 $14 −$13 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 24 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 24 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 24 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 23 $11 +$67 +629%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 23 $1 +$7 +625%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 23 $5 +$13 +252%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 23 $8 +$22 +261%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 23 $12 −$11 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 23 $6 −$6 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 23 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 23 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 23 $16 +$16 +102%
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 23 $4 −$4 -96%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 23 $2 +$10 +456%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 23 $10 +$24 +228%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 23 $29 +$31 +107%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 23 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 23 $3 +$7 +252%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 23 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 23 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 23 $10 +$47 +468%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 23 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 23 $4 +$6 +149%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 23 $7 −$7 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Up 21¢ $81 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $105 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 16¢ $30 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $1 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $1 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $1 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $5 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $10 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $10 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $10 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $3 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $10 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $5 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $19 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 21¢ $14 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Up 15¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 5¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Down 12¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Down 13¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Down 14¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Down 27¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 18¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Down 20¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $3 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $10 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 219 history records