Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T02:31:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
50 0x50f9…c327 sports 493 markets active 2h ago coverage 258d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$11,290 (-3%) realized −$11,387 · open +$97
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate59%289W / 203L
Whale WR56%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$820per market
Trades / day10.2pace
Fees−$885est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$246now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$48
7 days−$3,865
14 days−$2,388
30 days−$3,393
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 92% −$9,153
other 7% −$2,637
crypto 0% −$144
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-11.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 43 -14.2% -22.4% 47% 40% -18.2%
≤30d 85 +2.2% -7.5% 51% 44% -11.1%
≤90d 166 -2.9% -12.2% 54% 44% -13.6%
all 492 -1.6% -11.0% 59% 45% -10.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.2 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.0% 45% -10.7%
10% ← realistic here -19.5% 34% -19.2%
15% -27.3% 25% -27.0%
20% -34.4% 17% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
23% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 56% (≥$931) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +16% → late -19% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$299 vs −$485 · ×0.62 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

258d coverage
Net worth$246
Realized−$11,387
Unrealized+$97
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses289 / 203
Whale WR (big bets)56%
Est. fees paid−$885
Open positions1
Markets (closed)492 / 493
History coverage258d
Avg bet$820
Trades / day10.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 492 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Yes 47¢ 78¢ $149 $246 +$97 (+65%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 35 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $101 +$51 +50%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $269 −$219 -81%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $147 +$76 +52%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 18 $114 +$33 +29%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $176 −$62 -35%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $129 +$46 +36%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $103 +$27 +26%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $249 −$80 -32%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $48 −$44 -91%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $146 +$25 +17%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$2 -22%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $480 −$118 -25%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $622 −$72 -12%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $29 +$58 +199%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $649 −$123 -19%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $225 +$126 +56%
Map Handicap: MGLZ (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 15 $50 −$49 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $205 −$137 -67%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $445 −$248 -56%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $300 −$42 -14%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $204 −$200 -98%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 14 $495 +$196 +40%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $263 −$144 -55%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $1,515 −$294 -19%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $926 +$8 +1%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $598 +$327 +55%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $935 −$339 -36%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $203 −$200 -99%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $2,518 −$1,381 -55%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $2,350 +$169 +7%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $1,869 +$480 +26%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $899 +$971 +108%
Christian Pulisic: 1+ goals Jun 13 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $400 +$247 +62%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $115 −$111 -97%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $419 +$95 +23%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $829 +$112 +14%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $1,791 −$963 -54%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $1,909 −$1,423 -74%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $1,383 +$60 +4%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $1,164 +$124 +11%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $2,029 −$1,451 -72%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $1,019 +$609 +60%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $1,444 +$659 +46%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $1,459 −$13 -1%
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) Jun 11 $3 −$3 -98%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $502 +$85 +17%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $1,197 +$262 +22%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $772 +$363 +47%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $481 −$198 -41%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 47¢ $151 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY FURIA 66¢ $101 7h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY FURIA 25¢ $36 8h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY FURIA 25¢ $10 8h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner SELL FURIA 14¢ $47 9h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY FURIA 64¢ $223 10h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner SELL Aurora Gaming 100¢ $223 10h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 65¢ $147 11h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo SELL Aurora Gaming 80¢ $147 11h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Aurora Gaming 61¢ $114 12h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner SELL BetBoom Team 42¢ $114 12h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 63¢ $176 12h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 73¢ $129 24h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 79¢ $103 29h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 10¢ $3 3d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 3¢ $3 3d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 42¢ $48 3d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 25¢ $5 3d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 25¢ $43 3d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 65¢ $126 3d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 36¢ $126 3d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 33¢ $120 3d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 92¢ $120 3d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 75¢ $99 3d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 20¢ $8 3d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 25¢ $8 3d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 25¢ $2 3d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 58¢ $46 3d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 58¢ $4 3d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 58¢ $1 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $245.66 · official $245.66 (match) · 2788 history records