Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T09:40:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

50
0x50f9…5f78
other · 44 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
−$9 -1%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$9 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$14
Realized−$9
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses17 / 26
Open positions1
Markets (closed)43 / 44
History coverage358d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit52%
Chart Positions 1 History 43 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$24
14 days−$23
30 days−$23
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Yes 84¢ 84¢ $13 $14 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 13 $13 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $14 $0 -0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 13 $13 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $13 $0 -1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $14 −$2 -10%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 11 $14 $0 -2%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 09 $49 +$1 +2%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 08 $49 −$22 -46%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 07 $35 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 06 $38 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 05 $34 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 04 $34 +$1 +3%
Will 'A Minecraft Movie' have the best domestic opening weekend in 202 Jan 31 $17 +$2 +10%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Dec 19 $12 $0 -0%
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-11-30? Dec 11 $16 +$10 +64%
Will Burnley FC win on 2025-12-03? Nov 26 $30 $0 +0%
Will Wolves win on 2025-12-03? Nov 26 $39 $0 +0%
Will Chelsea win on 2025-11-30? Nov 26 $19 $0 -1%
Will Liverpool win on 2025-12-03? Nov 25 $4 $0 +0%
Will Fulham win on 2025-12-02? Nov 25 $7 $0 -0%
Will Leeds United win on 2025-12-03? Nov 25 $9 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-11-29? Nov 25 $16 $0 +0%
Will Andrew Cuomo win second place in the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Nov 14 $20 +$1 +4%
Will Democrats 66 win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamen Oct 23 $2 $0 -8%
Will Vlad Gheorghe be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Oct 23 $10 $0 +0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 23 $12 $0 +2%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Oct 23 $20 $0 +0%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 National League Championship? Oct 19 $19 +$1 +4%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 04 $19 $0 +0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Jul 04 $20 $0 -1%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 03 $4 $0 -2%
Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2025 World Series? Jul 03 $20 $0 +0%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 World Series? Jul 03 $20 $0 +0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2025 National League Championship Jul 03 $19 $0 +0%
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be the first leader out in 2025? Jul 02 $19 $0 +1%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 02 $2 $0 +0%
Will Kylian Mbappe win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jul 02 $20 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Jul 02 $20 $0 +0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 National League Championship? Jul 02 $19 $0 +0%
Will Cristian Popescu Piedone be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jul 01 $22 $0 +0%
Will 'Jurassic World: Rebirth' have the best domestic opening weekend Jun 23 $22 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk unfollow Donald Trump before July? Jun 22 $22 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $120K in June? Jun 21 $21 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 43% +$11
world 35% −$23
politics 12% +$1
economics 5% $0
crypto 3% $0
culture 2% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 84¢ $13 1h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $13 13h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $8 15h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $5 15h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 83¢ $14 20h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 83¢ $14 20h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $13 32h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $13 33h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $13 35h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $13 42h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 34¢ $13 46h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 38¢ $9 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 38¢ $3 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 38¢ $2 2d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? SELL Yes 56¢ $13 3d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? BUY Yes 57¢ $14 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 55¢ $15 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 55¢ $15 4d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 100¢ $11 6d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 96¢ $11 6d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 29¢ $15 6d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 72¢ $38 6d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $35 7d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $13 7d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $21 7d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $38 7d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $38 7d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 46¢ $35 8d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 45¢ $34 9d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 95¢ $12 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-9.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -7.2% -16.1% 12% 0% -21.4%
≤30d 12 -4.6% -13.7% 17% 0% -15.9%
≤90d 12 -4.6% -13.7% 17% 0% -15.9%
all 43 +0.4% -9.1% 40% 2% -10.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.1% 2% -10.5%
10% -17.8% 2% -19.1%
15% -25.8% 2% -26.9%
20% -33.1% 2% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $13.52 · official $13.52 (match) · 158 history records