Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T05:25:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
51 0x5100…f8f4 other 154 markets active 1d ago coverage 143d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$1,929 (-1%) realized −$1,929 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate22%33W / 120L
Whale WR3%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,157per market
Trades / day2.5pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$414now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$8
14 days−$11
30 days−$36
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 39% −$83
other 36% −$235
sports 17% −$1,629
culture 5% −$9
economics 2% −$1
crypto 1% +$1
world 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-12.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 34 +0.7% -8.9% 12% 3% -9.6%
≤90d 82 -0.6% -10.1% 7% 2% -9.7%
all 153 -3.4% -12.6% 22% 7% -10.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.6% 7% -10.5%
10% -21.0% 7% -19.1%
15% -28.6% 6% -26.9%
20% -35.6% 5% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 46% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
67% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 3% (≥$1,599) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -6% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$21 · ×0.75 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.21 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

143d coverage
Net worth$414
Realized−$1,929
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses33 / 120
Whale WR (big bets)3%
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)153 / 154
History coverage143d
Avg bet$1,157
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 153 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $414 $414 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 25 $425 −$1 -0%
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 24 $275 $0 -0%
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Jun 24 $246 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 23 $4,918 −$5 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 23 $285 $0 -0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 22 $244 $0 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 19 $345 −$1 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 19 $452 −$1 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 18 $884 −$1 -0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? Jun 18 $332 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Jun 17 $980 +$2 +0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 16 $1,878 −$2 -0%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 16 $370 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 14 $326 −$1 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 11 $2,578 −$3 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 11 $1,052 −$2 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 11 $752 −$1 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 09 $2,030 −$2 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 09 $3,460 −$4 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $3,403 −$4 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 07 $681 −$1 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 06 $671 −$1 -0%
Will France win on 2026-06-04? Jun 06 $66 −$66 -100%
Kansas City Royals vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 04 $51 +$66 +129%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 03 $2,324 −$2 -0%
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 02 $550 −$1 -0%
Will Solana reach $130 in May? Jun 02 $221 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $2.00 in May? Jun 02 $276 $0 +0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 01 $245 $0 -0%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 01 $320 −$1 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $1,525 −$2 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 31 $252 $0 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? May 28 $348 −$1 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 27 $324 −$1 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 27 $537 −$1 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 26 $410 −$1 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 25 $3,795 −$5 -0%
Will AS Roma win on 2026-05-24? May 25 $57 +$18 +31%
Houston Astros vs. Chicago Cubs May 24 $72 −$72 -100%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? May 22 $610 −$1 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 21 $610 −$1 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 21 $1,599 −$2 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 21 $2,026 −$3 -0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina May 20 $3,097 −$4 -0%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? May 10 $1,638 −$2 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin May 10 $1,662 −$3 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 10 $1,647 −$2 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 09 $1,265 −$2 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 09 $1,310 −$2 -0%
Will Croatia win Eurovision 2026? May 08 $1,233 −$2 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $425 25h
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $425 27h
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $275 42h
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $275 47h
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? SELL No 100¢ $245 2d
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? BUY No 100¢ $246 2d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $304 2d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $304 2d
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $285 3d
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $285 3d
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $244 3d
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $244 4d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $344 6d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $345 6d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $452 7d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $452 7d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $374 7d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $374 7d
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $331 8d
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $332 8d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $383 9d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $383 9d
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $369 10d
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $370 10d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $325 11d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $326 12d
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in June? BUY No 100¢ $414 13d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $755 14d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $757 14d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $741 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $414.23 · official $414.23 (match) · 469 history records