Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T15:33:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
51 0x5104…a114 sports 624 markets active 2h ago coverage 103d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$8,812 (-5%) realized −$8,828 · open +$16
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate30%183W / 437L
Whale WR47%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$271per market
Trades / day21.6pace
Fees−$1,309est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$616now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$679
7 days−$315
14 days−$567
30 days+$3,753
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 36% −$569
other 32% −$850
world 13% −$5,476
crypto 10% −$2,441
finance 4% −$3,998
politics 2% +$2,633
tech 1% −$897
economics 0% −$163
weather 0% −$138
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-22.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +22.1% +10.5% 33% 33% -12.2%
≤30d 108 -1.1% -10.5% 33% 31% -3.0%
≤90d 536 -18.6% -26.3% 29% 25% -19.0%
all 620 -14.6% -22.7% 30% 26% -15.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover21.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -22.7% 26% -15.9%
10% ← realistic here -30.1% 23% -24.0%
15% -36.9% 21% -31.3%
20% -43.1% 18% -38.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 47% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -19% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$277 vs −$143 · ×1.93 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

103d coverage
Net worth$616
Realized−$8,828
Unrealized+$16
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses183 / 437
Whale WR (big bets)47%
Est. fees paid−$1,309
Open positions1
Markets (closed)620 / 624
History coverage103d
Avg bet$271
Trades / day21.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 620 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Yes 57¢ 58¢ $600 $616 +$16 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $511 −$511 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $1,023 −$1,023 -100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $509 −$32 -6%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $661 +$886 +134%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $891 −$891 -100%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $2,043 −$991 -48%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $9 +$34 +365%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1,044 −$96 -9%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $303 −$11 -4%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $880 +$1,132 +129%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $2,011 +$2,116 +105%
Ilkley: Henrique Rocha vs Darwin Blanch Jun 12 $927 −$927 -100%
HSBC Championships: Jaqueline Cristian vs Katie Boulter Jun 12 $459 −$44 -10%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $1,329 +$188 +14%
HSBC Championships: Iva Jovic vs Alexandra Eala Jun 10 $220 −$220 -100%
Libema Open: Panna Udvardy vs Daria Snigur Jun 10 $613 +$816 +133%
Ilkley: Francesco Maestrelli vs Arthur Gea Jun 10 $520 −$520 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-08? Jun 08 $409 +$534 +130%
HSBC Championships: Katie Boulter vs Leylah Fernandez Jun 08 $254 −$3 -1%
Bratislava: Vitaliy Sachko vs Yosuke Watanuki Jun 08 $57 −$57 -100%
HSBC Championships: Karolina Pliskova vs McCartney Kessler Jun 08 $203 −$9 -4%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 08 $508 −$27 -5%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-07? Jun 08 $168 −$168 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Farés Ziam vs. Tom Nolan (Lightweight, Prelims) Jun 07 $306 +$765 +250%
UFC Fight Night: Matt Schnell vs. Alessandro Costa (Catchweight, Preli Jun 07 $256 −$256 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Yuneisy Duben vs. Jeisla Chaves (Women's Flyweight, P Jun 06 $153 −$153 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Ariane Carnelossi vs. Ketlen Souza (Women's Strawweig Jun 06 $204 −$204 -100%
Roland Garros WTA: Maja Chwalinska vs Mirra Andreeva Jun 06 $440 −$440 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $1,089 +$327 +30%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-04? Jun 05 $409 −$222 -54%
Roland Garros WTA: Diana Shnaider vs Maja Chwalinska Jun 05 $558 −$558 -100%
Roland Garros WTA: Marta Kostyuk vs Mirra Andreeva Jun 04 $509 +$365 +72%
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Berrettini vs Matteo Arnaldi Jun 03 $407 +$291 +71%
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Flavio Cobolli Jun 03 $609 +$29 +5%
Roland Garros WTA: Aryna Sabalenka vs Diana Shnaider Jun 03 $287 +$811 +282%
Roland Garros WTA: Anna Kalinskaya vs Maja Chwalinska Jun 03 $1,008 −$692 -69%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Joao Fonseca Jun 02 $663 +$202 +30%
Roland Garros ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Alexander Zverev Jun 02 $615 +$520 +85%
Roland Garros ATP: Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs Matteo Berrettini Jun 02 $509 −$509 -100%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? Jun 02 $291 −$291 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Matteo Arnaldi Jun 01 $976 +$139 +14%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Zachary Svajda Jun 01 $616 +$251 +41%
Roland Garros ATP: Casper Ruud vs Joao Fonseca Jun 01 $41 −$41 -100%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Gujarat Titans Jun 01 $141 −$141 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Andrey Rublev May 31 $508 +$331 +65%
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Berrettini vs Francisco Comesana May 30 $511 +$1,341 +262%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $865 −$92 -11%
Roland Garros ATP: Francisco Cerundolo vs Zachary Svajda May 30 $257 +$559 +218%
Roland Garros ATP: Moise Kouame vs Alejandro Tabilo May 30 $512 −$47 -9%
Nice vs. Saint-Etienne: O/U 2.5 May 30 $152 +$98 +65%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 57¢ $608 1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 24¢ $511 18h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? SELL No 37¢ $478 27h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 25¢ $511 30h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 24¢ $511 30h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 38¢ $509 30h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 42¢ $661 2d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 13¢ $123 2d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 20¢ $256 3d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 19¢ $512 3d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 53¢ $1,052 3d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 52¢ $13 4d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 51¢ $507 4d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 51¢ $761 4d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 51¢ $761 4d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 21¢ $9 4d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 45¢ $948 4d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $499 5d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $291 5d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? SELL No 62¢ $292 5d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 63¢ $303 5d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $254 5d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 43¢ $371 6d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 43¢ $509 6d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? AND Will Switzerland win on 202 BUY 24¢ $256 6d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 98¢ $4,128 6d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 46¢ $508 6d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $508 7d
Ilkley: Henrique Rocha vs Darwin Blanch BUY Henrique Rocha 22¢ $461 7d
Ilkley: Henrique Rocha vs Darwin Blanch BUY Henrique Rocha 43¢ $214 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $615.79 · official $615.79 (match) · 2611 history records