Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T11:11:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
51 0x5107…349c other 38 markets active 1h ago coverage 203d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$64 (-0%) realized −$64 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate24%9W / 29L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$400per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$21est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 32% −$7
politics 16% −$3
sports 14% −$109
crypto 14% −$5
tech 8% +$56
world 8% −$3
economics 8% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-8.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 6 +0.4% -9.2% 17% 0% -9.2%
≤90d 21 -0.7% -10.2% 14% 0% -10.4%
all 38 +1.4% -8.3% 24% 3% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.3% 3% -10.0%
10% -17.0% 3% -18.6%
15% -25.1% 3% -26.4%
20% -32.4% 0% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 49% · top 2 67% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
89% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$642) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +4% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$5 · ×1.44 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.45 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

203d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$64
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses9 / 29
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$21
Open positions0
Markets (closed)38 / 38
History coverage203d
Avg bet$400
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 38 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the New York Jets win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $111 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $112 $0 -0%
Will the New Orleans Saints win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $112 $0 -0%
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 15 $110 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 15 $111 $0 -0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 Jun 01 $111 +$4 +3%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 11 $1,028 −$3 -0%
Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? May 11 $1,032 −$4 -0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 11 $1,033 −$2 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? May 11 $1,035 −$2 -0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 11 $1,035 −$1 -0%
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? May 11 $1,038 −$1 -0%
Will Ahn Cheol-soo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 11 $1,037 −$1 -0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 11 $1,041 −$3 -0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April Apr 30 $108 +$1 +0%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? Apr 08 $638 −$105 -16%
Will Shane Lowry win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 08 $641 −$2 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Apr 07 $641 −$1 -0%
GTA VI released before June 2026? Apr 07 $917 −$1 -0%
Will Russell Henley win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 07 $642 −$1 -0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on March Apr 07 $135 +$2 +1%
Will Google have the second-best AI model at the end of March 2026? Mar 16 $137 −$2 -1%
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 16 $137 $0 -0%
Netanyahu out by March 31? Mar 16 $138 −$1 -1%
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Mar 16 $138 $0 -0%
Will Newcastle win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 16 $138 $0 -0%
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap Mar 01 $138 +$1 +0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Febru Feb 18 $272 +$4 +2%
Will Claude 5 be released on February 13, 2026? Feb 13 $3 $0 -0%
US strikes Iran by February 12, 2026? Feb 13 $139 $0 -0%
Will GTA 6 cost $100+? Feb 12 $136 $0 -0%
Will Claude 5 be released by February 14, 2026? Feb 12 $137 $0 -0%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? Feb 12 $138 −$1 -1%
Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on Jan 31 $131 +$5 +4%
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? Jan 17 $526 −$1 -0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Janua Jan 17 $121 +$10 +8%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem Dec 23 $60 +$29 +49%
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on Dec 01 $55 +$5 +9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the New York Jets win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $110 1h
Will the New York Jets win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $111 2h
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $112 2h
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $112 4h
Will the New Orleans Saints win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $112 28h
Will the New Orleans Saints win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $112 44h
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $110 44h
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $110 45h
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $110 45h
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $111 45h
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 BUY Yes 97¢ $111 28d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 96¢ $1,025 36d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $1,028 36d
Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? SELL No 96¢ $1,028 36d
Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? BUY No 96¢ $1,032 36d
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,031 36d
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,033 36d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? SELL No 100¢ $1,033 36d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $1,035 36d
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on SELL No 100¢ $1,033 36d
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on BUY No 100¢ $1,035 36d
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $1,036 36d
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,038 36d
Will Ahn Cheol-soo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election SELL No 100¢ $1,036 36d
Will Ahn Cheol-soo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election BUY No 100¢ $1,037 36d
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $1,038 36d
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $1,041 36d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April SELL Yes 100¢ $109 47d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April BUY Yes 99¢ $108 60d
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? SELL Yes 43¢ $532 70d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 94 history records