Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T05:19:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

51 0x5107…4281 other 8 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover

Total PnL +$242 (+15%) realized +$231 · open +$11

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +40% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +17% what you keep after slip

Net edge+17%after slip

Net WR40%break-even

Win rate60%3W / 2L

Drawdown28%max

Avg bet$199per market

Trades / day14.0pace

Fees−$2est.

Kalshi-fit25%portable

Net worth$593now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +40%

net ROI/market (all)+26.5%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	5	+39.8%	+26.5%	60%	40%	+11.0%
≤30d	5	+39.8%	+26.5%	60%	40%	+11.0%
≤90d	5	+39.8%	+26.5%	60%	40%	+11.0%
all	5	+39.8%	+26.5%	60%	40%	+11.0%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover14.0 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to15%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+26.5%	40%	+11.0%
10%	+14.4%	20%	+0.4%
15%	+3.3%	20%	-9.3%
20%	-6.8%	20%	-18.2%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 82% · top 2 99% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +23% too few recent

Fragile wins

33% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +40% · $-wt +23% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$105 vs −$45 · ×2.34 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×3.52 per $1 lost it wins $3.52

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$593

Realized+$231

Unrealized+$11

Win rate (resolved)60%

Wins / losses3 / 2

Est. fees paid−$2

Open positions3

Markets (closed)5 / 8

History coverage1d

Avg bet$199

Trades / day14.0

Drawdown28%

Kalshi-fit25%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 3 History 5 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26?	Yes	18¢	20¢	$193	$209	+$16 (+8%)
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26?	Yes	40¢	40¢	$195	$192	−$2 (-1%)
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26?	Yes	36¢	36¢	$194	$192	−$3 (-1%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25?	Jun 26	$90	−$54	-60%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25?	Jun 26	$200	−$36	-18%
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw?	Jun 26	$100	+$258	+258%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25?	Jun 26	$300	+$2	+1%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25?	Jun 25	$300	+$54	+18%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26?	BUY Yes	18¢	$200	1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26?	BUY Yes	40¢	$200	1h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26?	BUY Yes	36¢	$200	1h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25?	SELL Yes	15¢	$36	1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25?	SELL Yes	45¢	$164	1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25?	BUY Yes	52¢	$200	19h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25?	BUY Yes	83¢	$300	19h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25?	BUY Yes	35¢	$90	19h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25?	BUY Yes	90¢	$100	19h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25?	SELL Yes	89¢	$96	19h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25?	BUY Yes	90¢	$100	19h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25?	SELL Yes	89¢	$96	19h
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw?	BUY Yes	27¢	$100	19h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25?	BUY Yes	90¢	$100	19h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $593.16 · official $593.16 (match) · 17 history records