Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T03:08:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
51 0x5108…29cb sports 227 markets active 1h ago coverage 78d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$19,140 (-9%) realized −$19,109 · open −$31
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -1% what you keep after slip
Net edge-1%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate55%122W / 98L
Whale WR58%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$945per market
Trades / day5.8pace
Fees−$1,677est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$2,769now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2,230
7 days−$14,532
14 days−$19,248
30 days−$11,957
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 69% −$5,670
other 16% −$2,544
world 13% −$8,318
crypto 2% −$2,333
finance 0% −$973
tech 0% −$100
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)+7.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 107 +6.4% -3.8% 61% 60% -21.8%
≤30d 175 +2.5% -7.3% 59% 58% -15.6%
≤90d 220 +18.7% +7.4% 55% 54% -19.3%
all 220 +18.7% +7.4% 55% 54% -19.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +7.4% 54% -19.3%
10% -2.9% 54% -27.0%
15% -12.2% 47% -34.0%
20% -20.9% 33% -40.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +19% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 58% (≥$1,006) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +31% → late +6% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$561 vs −$901 · ×0.62 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

78d coverage
Net worth$2,769
Realized−$19,109
Unrealized−$31
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses122 / 98
Whale WR (big bets)58%
Est. fees paid−$1,677
Open positions6
Markets (closed)220 / 227
History coverage78d
Avg bet$945
Trades / day5.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 220 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Over 46¢ 69¢ $500 $755 +$255 (+51%)
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Over 67¢ 100¢ $500 $746 +$246 (+49%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Yes 76¢ 71¢ $500 $469 −$31 (-6%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes 62¢ 48¢ $500 $383 −$117 (-23%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Yes 47¢ 28¢ $500 $303 −$197 (-39%)
Will JD Vance attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? Yes 31¢ 12¢ $300 $112 −$188 (-63%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 81 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Brazil (-3.5) Jun 20 $304 −$300 -99%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $505 −$500 -99%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 20 $303 +$110 +36%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $303 +$161 +53%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $505 +$268 +53%
Brazil vs. Haiti: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $609 +$659 +108%
Brazil leading at halftime? Jun 20 $908 +$370 +41%
Brazil vs. Haiti: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $503 +$137 +27%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $608 +$445 +73%
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $609 −$609 -100%
Scotland vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $202 +$101 +50%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $304 +$188 +62%
United States vs. Australia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $605 +$258 +43%
Halle Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Daniil Medvedev Jun 19 $304 −$300 -99%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $609 −$600 -99%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $807 −$800 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 19 $51 +$24 +47%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $503 +$137 +27%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $711 +$768 +108%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $606 +$277 +46%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $303 −$300 -99%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $1,012 −$1,000 -99%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Mexico O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $305 −$300 -98%
Canada leading at halftime? Jun 19 $101 +$77 +76%
Canada vs. Qatar: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $504 +$172 +34%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $205 +$795 +388%
Czechia vs. South Africa: South Africa O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $202 +$120 +60%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $307 +$805 +262%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $506 −$500 -99%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $504 −$500 -99%
Czechia vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $202 −$200 -99%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $504 +$190 +38%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $304 +$196 +65%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Colombia O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $1,011 +$563 +56%
Colombia leading at halftime? Jun 18 $509 +$805 +158%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $508 +$512 +101%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1,009 −$1,000 -99%
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $808 +$386 +48%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $504 +$181 +36%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $508 +$556 +109%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1,309 −$806 -62%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $808 −$800 -99%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $507 −$500 -99%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $811 −$800 -99%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $3,839 +$2,235 +58%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $1,927 +$1,691 +88%
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $708 +$403 +57%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $508 +$579 +114%
Austria vs. Jordan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $605 +$239 +40%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 17 $406 −$38 -9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $508 32m
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 67¢ $505 32m
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $508 32m
Spread: Brazil (-3.5) BUY Brazil 55¢ $304 1h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 69¢ $505 1h
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) SELL Brazil 99¢ $412 1h
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $464 1h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $774 1h
Brazil vs. Haiti: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $1,269 1h
Brazil leading at halftime? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,278 1h
Brazil vs. Haiti: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $640 1h
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Brazil 72¢ $303 2h
Brazil vs. Haiti: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 44¢ $305 2h
Brazil vs. Haiti: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 78¢ $503 2h
Brazil leading at halftime? BUY Yes 70¢ $605 2h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 65¢ $505 2h
Scotland vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $303 3h
Halle Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Daniil Medvedev BUY Daniil Medvedev 55¢ $304 10h
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 2.5 BUY Over 65¢ $303 10h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 AND Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score AN BUY 23¢ $205 10h
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 53¢ $304 10h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $304 10h
United States vs. Australia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 69¢ $303 10h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 69¢ $303 16h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 57¢ $101 16h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $304 16h
United States vs. Australia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 70¢ $303 16h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $304 16h
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $304 16h
Brazil leading at halftime? BUY Yes 71¢ $303 16h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,768.52 · official $2,768.74 (match) · 545 history records