Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T09:36:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
51 0x510a…995a other 37 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$794 (-9%) realized −$799 · open +$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -45% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -54% what you keep after slip
Net edge-54%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%12W / 24L
Whale WR67%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$249per market
Trades / day13.9pace
Fees−$48est.
Kalshi-fit41%portable
Net worth$31now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 66% +$1,062
sports 34% −$1,924
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-49.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 36 -44.7% -49.9% 33% 33% -18.1%
≤30d 36 -44.7% -49.9% 33% 33% -18.1%
≤90d 36 -44.7% -49.9% 33% 33% -18.1%
all 36 -44.7% -49.9% 33% 33% -18.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -49.9% 33% -18.1%
10% -54.7% 31% -26.0%
15% -59.1% 22% -33.1%
20% -63.1% 14% -39.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -45% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 67% (≥$504) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -50% → late -40% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$187 vs −$130 · ×1.44 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$31
Realized−$799
Unrealized+$5
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses12 / 24
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Est. fees paid−$48
Open positions1
Markets (closed)36 / 37
History coverage4d
Avg bet$249
Trades / day13.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit41%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 36 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 7.5 Over 57¢ 68¢ $26 $31 +$5 (+20%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 19 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 20 $624 +$203 +33%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $304 +$231 +76%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $51 +$39 +76%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Team to Take First Corner Jun 19 $20 −$20 -98%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 19 $74 −$4 -5%
Spread: United States (-2.5) Jun 19 $229 −$161 -70%
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $20 −$14 -70%
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 19 $42 −$36 -86%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $152 +$71 +47%
HSBC Championships: Hamad Medjedovic vs Ugo Humbert Jun 19 $4 −$4 -98%
Exact Score: United States 1 - 0 Australia? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -98%
United States vs. Australia: Team to Take First Corner Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $161 +$48 +30%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 18 $203 −$200 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $404 +$230 +57%
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 2 Korea Republic? Jun 18 $7 −$7 -97%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 18 $20 −$20 -98%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 1 Qatar? Jun 18 $21 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 0 Qatar? Jun 18 $21 −$20 -98%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 1 Qatar? Jun 18 $21 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 0 Qatar? Jun 18 $21 −$20 -98%
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 1 South Africa? Jun 18 $23 −$22 -97%
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 0 South Africa? Jun 18 $21 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 0 South Africa? Jun 18 $21 −$20 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $546 −$538 -99%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $514 +$203 +40%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $405 +$284 +70%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $102 −$42 -41%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $1,057 −$1,045 -99%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 17 $628 −$615 -98%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $154 −$150 -98%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $504 +$200 +40%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $505 +$276 +55%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $1,177 +$286 +24%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1,001 +$175 +18%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 57¢ $26 1h
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Brazil 75¢ $624 9h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $535 9h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score SELL No 100¢ $89 9h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Team to Take First Corner BUY Scotland 43¢ $20 12h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY No 56¢ $51 12h
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) SELL Brazil 51¢ $71 12h
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Brazil 52¢ $74 12h
Spread: United States (-2.5) SELL United States 15¢ $67 12h
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 16¢ $6 12h
Spread: United States (-2.5) BUY United States 50¢ $229 13h
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score in First Half SELL Yes 3¢ $6 13h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 91¢ $223 13h
HSBC Championships: Hamad Medjedovic vs Ugo Humbert BUY Hamad Medjedovic 49¢ $4 20h
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 20¢ $42 24h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 56¢ $304 26h
Exact Score: United States 1 - 0 Australia? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 26h
United States vs. Australia: Team to Take First Corner BUY Australia 39¢ $10 26h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $152 26h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 18¢ $102 26h
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $20 26h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 98¢ $209 35h
Spread: Canada (-1.5) BUY Qatar 45¢ $203 35h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 100¢ $634 36h
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 2 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 8¢ $7 37h
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $20 37h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 75¢ $161 37h
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 1 Qatar? BUY Yes 11¢ $21 37h
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 0 Qatar? BUY Yes 15¢ $21 37h
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 1 Qatar? BUY Yes 9¢ $21 37h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $31.28 · official $31.28 (match) · 55 history records