Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T21:14:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

51
0x510a…4132
crypto · 26 markets active 1h ago
5.5score
+$55 +19%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$55 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$5
Realized+$55
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses13 / 12
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)25 / 26
History coverage63d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown77%
Kalshi-fit81%
Chart Positions 1 History 25 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$65
7 days+$65
14 days+$65
30 days+$65
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 17¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Down 52¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Yes 17¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 2 Switzerland? Jun 13 $1 $0 +16%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $76 +$83 +109%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +2%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $5 +$1 +23%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $10 −$5 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$2 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$3 -61%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Apr 15 $3 −$3 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Apr 15 $2 +$1 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Apr 15 $17 −$13 -74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Apr 15 $14 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Apr 15 $28 −$2 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Apr 15 $43 −$5 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Apr 15 $5 −$3 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Apr 14 $14 +$12 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Apr 14 $5 −$4 -84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Apr 14 $17 +$2 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Apr 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Apr 14 $12 +$5 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Apr 11 $5 +$3 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Apr 11 $5 +$2 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Apr 11 $1 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Apr 11 $1 $0 +20%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 65% −$20
other 33% +$74
sports 2% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 2 Switzerland? SELL Yes 28¢ $1 53m
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 2 Switzerland? BUY Yes 23¢ $1 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $76 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $5 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET SELL Up 87¢ $1 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $1 24h
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? SELL Yes 81¢ $6 24h
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 65¢ $5 24h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 28¢ $5 24h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 52¢ $10 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET SELL Up 20¢ $4 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $5 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET SELL Up 21¢ $2 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $5 26h
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 26h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET SELL Up 5¢ $0 59d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $3 59d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET SELL Down 98¢ $3 59d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $2 59d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $2 59d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $2 59d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET SELL Up 8¢ $2 59d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $15 59d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET SELL Down 98¢ $15 59d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $14 59d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $14 59d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $11 59d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET SELL Up 16¢ $2 59d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET SELL Up 46¢ $9 59d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-21.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -21.1% -28.7% 44% 33% +42.2%
≤30d 9 -21.1% -28.7% 44% 33% +42.2%
≤90d 25 -13.0% -21.3% 52% 40% +7.6%
all 25 -13.0% -21.3% 52% 40% +7.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.3% 40% +7.6%
10% -28.8% 28% -2.7%
15% -35.7% 20% -12.1%
20% -42.0% 12% -20.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.08 · official $5.08 (match) · 61 history records