Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T02:07:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
51 0x510b…795b sports 96 markets active 2h ago coverage 74d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable P/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$13,624 (+21%) realized +$5,538 · open +$8,086
Gross ROI / mkt +24% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +3% what you keep after slip
Net edge+3%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate84%78W / 15L
Whale WR71%big bets
Drawdown26%max
Avg bet$668per market
Trades / day4.5pace
Fees−$667est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$18,815now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 74d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 83% +$14,924
other 15% +$6,302
crypto 1% +$1
weather 0% +$1
finance 0% $0
tech 0% −$17
economics 0% $0
politics 0% +$1
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)+12.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +178.2% +151.7% 100% 67% +202.2%
≤30d 3 +178.2% +151.7% 100% 67% +202.2%
≤90d 93 +23.8% +12.0% 84% 23% +12.8%
all 93 +23.8% +12.0% 84% 23% +12.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +12.0% 23% +12.8%
10% +1.3% 20% +2.0%
15% -8.5% 17% -7.8%
20% -17.5% 14% -16.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +25% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
73% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +24% · $-wt +25% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 71% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +34% → late +14% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$343 vs −$908 · ×0.38 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.96 per $1 lost it wins $1.96
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

74d coverage
Net worth$18,815
Realized+$5,538
Unrealized+$8,086
Win rate (resolved)84%
Wins / losses78 / 15
Whale WR (big bets)71%
Est. fees paid−$667
Open positions3
Markets (closed)93 / 96
History coverage74d
Avg bet$668
Trades / day4.5
Drawdown26%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 93 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score No 45¢ 78¢ $10,687 $18,769 +$8,082 (+76%)
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? No 96¢ 98¢ $24 $24 +$0 (+2%)
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? No 53¢ 64¢ $18 $22 +$4 (+22%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 14 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $390 +$11 +3%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $832 +$1,796 +216%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $1,284 +$4,058 +316%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? May 12 $22 $0 +2%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Vitality (BO5) - BLAST Rivals Playoff May 03 $4,105 +$996 +24%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult J.D. Vance by April 30, 2026? May 03 $21 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026? May 03 $21 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 1320-1359 tweets in April 2026? May 03 $21 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 90°F or higher on April 28? May 03 $22 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C on April 28? May 03 $22 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on April 26, 2026? May 03 $22 $0 +0%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? May 03 $19 +$3 +16%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m May 03 $22 $0 +0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me May 03 $23 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in April? May 03 $24 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in April? May 03 $24 $0 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $50 in April? May 03 $24 $0 +0%
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $60 in April? May 03 $25 $0 +1%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in April? May 03 $25 $0 +1%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $160 in April? May 03 $25 $0 +0%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 in April? May 03 $25 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in April? May 03 $25 $0 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $170 in April? May 03 $25 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 in April? May 03 $25 $0 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April? May 03 $25 $0 +0%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,900 in April? May 03 $25 $0 +0%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Apr May 03 $25 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April May 03 $25 $0 +0%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on April May 03 $25 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 in April? May 03 $30 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on April 28? May 03 $33 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in April? May 03 $25 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 76-77°F on April 28? Apr 28 $22 $0 +0%
Bank of Japan decreases interest rates after the April 2026 meeting? Apr 28 $22 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be 92°F or higher on April 26? Apr 27 $21 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $66,000 April 20-26? Apr 27 $21 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 April 20-26? Apr 27 $21 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $86,000 April 20-26? Apr 27 $21 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $88,000 April 20-26? Apr 27 $21 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C or higher on April 2 Apr 27 $20 +$1 +4%
Celtics vs. 76ers Apr 27 $354 +$174 +49%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on April 26? Apr 27 $21 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C or higher on April 26? Apr 27 $21 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 17°C on April 26? Apr 26 $11 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $79,000 on April 24? Apr 26 $21 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 25? Apr 26 $21 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 18°C on April 26? Apr 26 $21 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $74,000 on April 24? Apr 26 $21 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 on April 24? Apr 26 $21 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 74-75°F on April 26? Apr 26 $21 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY No 45¢ $18 1h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY No 45¢ $1,720 1h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY No 44¢ $1,652 1h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY No 44¢ $4 1h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY No 44¢ $1 1h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY No 44¢ $15 1h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY No 44¢ $8 1h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY No 44¢ $9 1h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY No 44¢ $4 1h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY No 44¢ $3 1h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY No 44¢ $479 1h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY No 44¢ $8 1h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY No 44¢ $181 1h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY No 44¢ $13 1h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY No 44¢ $190 1h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY No 44¢ $393 1h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY No 44¢ $32 1h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY No 44¢ $15 1h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY No 44¢ $18 1h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY No 44¢ $2 1h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY No 44¢ $31 1h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY No 44¢ $39 1h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY No 44¢ $90 1h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY No 46¢ $27 1h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY No 45¢ $409 2h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY No 45¢ $25 2h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY No 45¢ $8 2h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY No 45¢ $2 2h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY No 45¢ $1 2h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY No 45¢ $4 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $18,815.46 · official $18,815.46 (match) · 414 history records