Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T06:52:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
51 0x510b…8261 weather 42 markets active 0h ago coverage 17d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$27 (-1%) realized −$20 · open −$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate90%36W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$110per market
Trades / day8.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$158now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$41
7 days+$38
14 days−$60
30 days−$36
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% −$43
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-9.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 +0.8% -8.8% 89% 0% -7.8%
≤30d 40 +0.5% -9.1% 90% 2% -10.3%
≤90d 40 +0.5% -9.1% 90% 2% -10.3%
all 40 +0.5% -9.1% 90% 2% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.1% 2% -10.3%
10% -17.8% 0% -18.8%
15% -25.7% 0% -26.7%
20% -33.0% 0% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$52 · ×0.09 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

17d coverage
Net worth$158
Realized−$20
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)90%
Wins / losses36 / 4
Open positions2
Markets (closed)40 / 42
History coverage17d
Avg bet$110
Trades / day8.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 40 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 16? No 98¢ 96¢ $84 $83 −$2 (-2%)
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 15? Yes 77¢ 72¢ $81 $76 −$5 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 15? Jun 15 $165 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 15? Jun 15 $163 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 15? Jun 14 $155 +$8 +5%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 14? Jun 14 $59 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 14? Jun 14 $283 +$17 +6%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on June 14? Jun 14 $135 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 14? Jun 13 $125 +$10 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 13? Jun 13 $104 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $117 +$7 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 12? Jun 12 $111 +$6 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 11? Jun 11 $14 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 11? Jun 11 $109 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 10? Jun 10 $105 +$4 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 10? Jun 10 $96 +$9 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 10? Jun 10 $97 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 9? Jun 09 $69 −$36 -52%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 9? Jun 09 $35 +$2 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 9? Jun 09 $34 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 8? Jun 08 $32 +$2 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 9? Jun 08 $32 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C or higher on June 8? Jun 08 $32 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 7? Jun 07 $29 +$3 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 7? Jun 07 $25 +$4 +14%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 6? Jun 06 $24 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 6? Jun 06 $193 −$169 -88%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 5? Jun 05 $191 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 36°C or higher on June 5? Jun 05 $176 +$14 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 4? Jun 04 $176 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 4? Jun 04 $165 +$11 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 3? Jun 03 $152 +$12 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 3? Jun 02 $148 +$5 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 2? Jun 02 $136 +$11 +8%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 1? Jun 01 $135 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C or higher on June 1? Jun 01 $130 +$5 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 1? Jun 01 $128 +$2 +2%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on May 31? May 31 $117 +$11 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on May 31? May 31 $112 +$6 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on May 31? May 31 $110 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on May 30? May 30 $111 −$1 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on May 30? May 30 $107 +$4 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 16? BUY No 98¢ $84 12m
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 15? BUY Yes 77¢ $82 13m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 15? SELL Yes 99¢ $166 15m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 15? BUY Yes 98¢ $165 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 15? SELL No 100¢ $165 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $36 2h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 15? BUY No 98¢ $25 2h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 15? BUY No 98¢ $98 2h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 15? BUY No 96¢ $4 2h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 15? SELL No 100¢ $163 13h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 15? BUY No 98¢ $60 15h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 14? SELL Yes 99¢ $60 15h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 14? BUY Yes 97¢ $10 15h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 14? BUY Yes 97¢ $48 15h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 15? BUY No 93¢ $95 16h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 14? SELL Yes 100¢ $154 16h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 14? BUY Yes 94¢ $146 24h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 14? SELL Yes 82¢ $146 24h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 14? BUY Yes 86¢ $12 24h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 14? BUY Yes 78¢ $7 24h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 14? BUY Yes 78¢ $30 24h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 14? BUY Yes 78¢ $7 24h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 14? BUY Yes 78¢ $53 24h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on June 14? SELL No 98¢ $70 25h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on June 14? SELL No 98¢ $29 25h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on June 14? SELL No 98¢ $10 25h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 14? BUY Yes 65¢ $27 25h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on June 14? SELL No 98¢ $27 25h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on June 14? BUY No 97¢ $44 36h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on June 14? BUY No 96¢ $91 38h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $158.36 · official $158.36 (match) · 145 history records