Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T23:32:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
51 0x510b…da8d other 275 markets active 1h ago coverage 346d
TRAPdo not copy
Total PnL +$870 (+6%) realized +$577 · open +$44
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate61%148W / 94L
Drawdown38%max
Avg bet$56per market
Trades / day5.1pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$2,032now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$9
7 days+$47
14 days+$84
30 days+$339
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 43% +$29
finance 29% +$236
crypto 12% +$57
tech 11% +$289
world 3% +$9
sports 2% $0
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-5.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -23.7% -30.9% 64% 14% -5.9%
≤30d 59 -2.1% -11.5% 64% 31% -1.7%
≤90d 220 +5.0% -5.0% 61% 29% -5.2%
all 242 +4.8% -5.2% 61% 29% -5.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.2% 29% -5.2%
10% -14.3% 22% -14.3%
15% -22.5% 16% -22.5%
20% -30.1% 11% -30.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
53% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late +3% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$9 · ×1.06 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.75 per $1 lost it wins $1.75
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

346d coverage
Net worth$2,032
Realized+$577
Unrealized+$44
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses148 / 94
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions33
Markets (closed)242 / 275
History coverage346d
Avg bet$56
Trades / day5.1
Drawdown38%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 33 History 242 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $4.40 in June? No 98¢ 99¢ $586 $592 +$6 (+1%)
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? No 98¢ 98¢ $390 $394 +$3 (+1%)
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 0% or lower before 2027? No 95¢ 96¢ $354 $358 +$4 (+1%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? Yes 93¢ 90¢ $272 $263 −$8 (-3%)
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.0% or lower before 2027? No 93¢ 96¢ $81 $83 +$2 (+3%)
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.5% or lower before 2027? No 95¢ 95¢ $76 $76 +$0 (+0%)
Will the DFM Real Estate Index dip to 4,000 in 2026? No 88¢ 95¢ $49 $53 +$4 (+8%)
Will Databricks' valuation hit (LOW) $140B by June 30? No 89¢ 92¢ $43 $44 +$1 (+3%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? No 6¢ 10¢ $19 $32 +$13 (+72%)
Will Stripe's valuation hit (HIGH) $500B by December 31? No 89¢ 94¢ $27 $28 +$1 (+5%)
Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 5.5% or higher before 2027? No 94¢ 96¢ $25 $25 +$1 (+2%)
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $4.20 in June? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $11 $20 +$10 (+87%)
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 0.25% or lower before 2027? Yes 4¢ 5¢ $16 $18 +$2 (+13%)
Will the DFM Real Estate Index dip to 6,000 in 2026? Yes 10¢ 16¢ $6 $9 +$4 (+65%)
Will Databricks' valuation hit (LOW) $145B by June 30? Yes 11¢ 14¢ $5 $7 +$2 (+30%)
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+4%)
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.75% or lower before 2027? Yes 3¢ 5¢ $3 $4 +$2 (+59%)
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.25% or lower before 2027? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-10%)
Will Stripe's valuation hit (HIGH) $400B by December 31? Yes 8¢ 6¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-26%)
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $82 in June? No 86¢ 92¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+7%)
Will USD/JPY hit 170 (High) in 2026? No 67¢ 72¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+7%)
Will Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) hit (HIGH) $140 in June? Yes 31¢ 16¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-47%)
Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 5.0% or higher before 2027? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+7%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026? Yes 14¢ 8¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-44%)
Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (LOW) $168 in June? No 27¢ 69¢ $0 $1 +$0 (+157%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? Jun 14 $15 +$5 +35%
Will Databricks' valuation hit (HIGH) $250B by June 30? Jun 14 $50 +$1 +2%
Will Databricks' valuation hit (HIGH) $225B by June 30? Jun 14 $1 $0 +2%
Will the price of XRP be above $0.90 on June 14? Jun 14 $223 +$3 +1%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 22? Jun 12 $56 +$2 +3%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.00 on June 14? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -94%
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $80 in June? Jun 12 $43 −$8 -19%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $90 on June 11? Jun 11 $99 +$37 +38%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $88 on June 10? Jun 11 $7 −$7 -100%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $87 on June 10? Jun 10 $385 +$14 +4%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on June 10? Jun 10 $278 +$5 +2%
Will Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) hit (HIGH) $144 in June? Jun 09 $11 $0 +1%
Will Kraken's valuation hit (LOW) $10.5B by June 30? Jun 06 $11 +$37 +343%
Will Zcash reach $900 by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $5 +$1 +27%
Will Zcash reach $800 by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $11 −$1 -12%
Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (HIGH) $225 in May? May 30 $4 −$3 -68%
Will Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit (LOW) $120 in May? May 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (LOW) $146 in May? May 30 $108 +$12 +11%
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $96 in May? May 30 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Opendoor Technologies Inc. (OPEN) hit (HIGH) $7.50 in May? May 30 $3 −$3 -92%
Will Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) hit (LOW) $76 in May? May 30 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (LOW) $65 in May? May 30 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Apple (AAPL) hit (LOW) $264 in May? May 30 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Apple (AAPL) hit (LOW) $256 in May? May 30 $172 +$53 +31%
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $98 in May? May 30 $38 +$2 +6%
Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (HIGH) $230 in May? May 30 $94 +$5 +5%
Will Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) hit (LOW) $72 in May? May 30 $100 +$6 +6%
Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (LOW) $60 in May? May 30 $182 +$4 +2%
Will Opendoor Technologies Inc. (OPEN) hit (HIGH) $8.00 in May? May 30 $152 +$6 +4%
Will Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit (LOW) $114 in May? May 29 $58 +$2 +4%
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $72 in May? May 28 $79 +$38 +48%
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $70 in May? May 25 $146 +$8 +5%
Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 5.25% or higher before 2027? May 24 $151 +$1 +1%
Will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (HIGH) $140 Week of May 18 2026? May 23 $17 +$7 +44%
Will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (LOW) $124 Week of May 18 2026? May 23 $8 −$6 -75%
Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (LOW) $144 in May? May 23 $64 +$6 +9%
Will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (LOW) $122 Week of May 18 2026? May 22 $62 +$7 +11%
Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (LOW) $148 in May? May 22 $30 −$2 -8%
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.80 in May? May 22 $165 +$8 +5%
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.90 in May? May 22 $27 +$8 +29%
Will Hyperliquid reach $58 by December 31, 2026? May 21 $42 −$7 -17%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,700 in May? May 21 $0 $0 -100%
Nvidia Data Center Revenue above 75B in Q1? May 21 $30 +$2 +7%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.4T by June 30? May 21 $63 +$87 +138%
Will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (HIGH) $142 Week of May 18 2026? May 20 $169 +$14 +8%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.35T by June 30? May 20 $28 +$8 +30%
Will Opendoor Technologies Inc. (OPEN) hit (LOW) $4.00 in May? May 20 $116 −$14 -12%
Will Hyperliquid reach $62 by December 31, 2026? May 20 $44 +$5 +12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $29 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $4 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? SELL No 9¢ $1 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 93¢ $9 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 90¢ $1 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $9 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 92¢ $9 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? SELL No 29¢ $0 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $1 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? SELL Yes 78¢ $1 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $15 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026? SELL Yes 13¢ $2 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? SELL No 18¢ $1 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 90¢ $6 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026? SELL No 92¢ $9 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026? SELL Yes 9¢ $1 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $6 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026? SELL No 91¢ $55 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $1 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026? SELL No 87¢ $9 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? SELL Yes 84¢ $4 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? SELL No 17¢ $1 1h
Will Databricks' valuation hit (HIGH) $250B by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $2 1h
Will Databricks' valuation hit (HIGH) $225B by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? SELL No 16¢ $1 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? SELL Yes 87¢ $5 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? SELL No 14¢ $1 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? SELL Yes 87¢ $5 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? SELL No 14¢ $0 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 88¢ $1 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,032.46 · official $2,036.44 (match) · 1901 history records