Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:37:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
51 0x510c…6a61 sports 230 markets active 0h ago coverage 28d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
! high turnover
Total PnL +$5,280 (+19%) realized +$5,304 · open −$24
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +40% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +8% what you keep after slip
Net edge+8%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate42%95W / 131L
Whale WR75%big bets
Drawdown2%max
Avg bet$119per market
Trades / day46.8pace
Fees−$297est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,201
7 days+$1,492
14 days+$1,506
30 days+$5,062
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 62% +$3,222
sports 38% +$1,809
crypto 0% +$14
world 0% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)+27.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 88 +34.2% +21.4% 40% 23% +1.1%
≤30d 226 +40.4% +27.0% 42% 29% +7.0%
≤90d 226 +40.4% +27.0% 42% 29% +7.0%
all 226 +40.4% +27.0% 42% 29% +7.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover46.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +27.0% 29% +7.0%
10% ← realistic here +14.8% 22% -3.2%
15% +3.7% 19% -12.6%
20% -6.4% 15% -21.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +19% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
32% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +40% · $-wt +19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 75% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +38% → late +43% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$66 vs −$9 · ×7.33 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×5.32 per $1 lost it wins $5.32
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

28d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$5,304
Unrealized−$24
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses95 / 131
Whale WR (big bets)75%
Est. fees paid−$297
Open positions4
Markets (closed)226 / 230
History coverage28d
Avg bet$119
Trades / day46.8
Drawdown2%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 226 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Under 2¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-97%)
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Under 1¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-95%)
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 Under 1¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-95%)
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 Under 1¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-95%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 Jun 17 $51 −$2 -3%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $446 +$6 +1%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1,010 +$173 +17%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $9 +$2 +20%
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $11 +$1 +7%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $2 +$1 +47%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $64 +$63 +98%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $173 +$1 +1%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $10 +$60 +604%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $25 +$569 +2235%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Austria vs. Jordan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $257 −$9 -4%
Austria vs. Jordan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $241 +$10 +4%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $305 −$33 -11%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $405 +$14 +3%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Iraq vs. Norway: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $405 +$9 +2%
Iraq vs. Norway: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Iraq vs. Norway: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $106 −$5 -4%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $201 −$28 -14%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $601 +$111 +18%
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $10 +$160 +1599%
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $6 +$5 +87%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $206 −$29 -14%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $32 +$3 +8%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $1 +$6 +426%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $20 −$7 -36%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $38 −$26 -68%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $124 −$3 -3%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $127 −$13 -10%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $810 −$33 -4%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $299 +$106 +35%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $63 +$4 +6%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $89 −$8 -9%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $308 −$28 -9%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $9 −$5 -52%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $809 +$63 +8%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $400 +$9 +2%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $800 +$118 +15%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 SELL Under 54¢ $49 25m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 21¢ $13 25m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 55¢ $12 25m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 22¢ $14 25m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 55¢ $39 25m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 1¢ $1 26m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 1¢ $0 26m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 1¢ $2 26m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 1¢ $0 26m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 1¢ $2 26m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 24¢ $265 45m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 58¢ $439 45m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 57¢ $358 45m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 57¢ $69 45m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 57¢ $5 46m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 22¢ $163 46m
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 59¢ $571 46m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 22¢ $80 46m
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 51¢ $508 46m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 1¢ $3 47m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 1¢ $1 47m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 1¢ $1 47m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 16¢ $11 59m
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 1¢ $0 1h
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 1¢ $0 1h
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 1¢ $0 1h
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 1¢ $4 1h
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 1¢ $1 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 13¢ $9 1h
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 7¢ $5 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.04 · official $1.04 (match) · 1411 history records