Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T05:09:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
51 0x510f…9116 other 30 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$3 (-5%) realized −$5 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -34% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -45% what you keep after slip
Net edge-45%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate28%5W / 13L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day10.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit43%portable
Net worth$31now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 75% +$1
sports 22% −$2
crypto 3% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-40.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 -34.3% -40.5% 28% 28% -24.0%
≤30d 18 -34.3% -40.5% 28% 28% -24.0%
≤90d 18 -34.3% -40.5% 28% 28% -24.0%
all 18 -34.3% -40.5% 28% 28% -24.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -40.5% 28% -24.0%
10% -46.2% 28% -31.3%
15% -51.4% 28% -37.9%
20% -56.2% 28% -44.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 64% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -34% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -49% → late -20% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$2 · ×1.94 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.74 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$31
Realized−$5
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses5 / 13
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions12
Markets (closed)18 / 30
History coverage3d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day10.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit43%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 18 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Yes 51¢ 100¢ $3 $6 +$3 (+96%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-0%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-5%)
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Yes 68¢ 66¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-2%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+18%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-0%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Yes 66¢ 66¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Yes 61¢ 60¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-9%)
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Spain 76¢ 76¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Yes 29¢ 28¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 7¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-22%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $1 +$1 +86%
Curaçao to score first vs. Germany? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Spread: Germany (-4.5) Jun 14 $2 −$2 -99%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $5 +$3 +57%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $2 +$6 +276%
Spread: Spurs (-4.5) Jun 13 $1 −$1 -99%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $1 −$1 -99%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 13 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $2 +$2 +105%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $3 +$5 +158%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $1 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 66¢ $2 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 61¢ $2 1h
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Spain 76¢ $1 1h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $2 3h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $1 15h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 53¢ $1 15h
Curaçao to score first vs. Germany? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 15h
Spread: Germany (-4.5) BUY Curaçao 69¢ $2 15h
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $1 23h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $2 32h
Spread: Spurs (-4.5) BUY Spurs 55¢ $1 32h
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Brazil 32¢ $1 38h
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 60¢ $1 38h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 65¢ $1 43h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $3 43h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $5 43h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $2 43h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $2 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 2d
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $1 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 48¢ $2 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $3 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 60¢ $5 2d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 3d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 3d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 3d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 3d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 3d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $31.46 · official $31.46 (match) · 39 history records