Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T12:46:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

51
0x510f…a43c
other · 357 markets active 0h ago
2.0score
+$1,457 +17%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$1,600 · open −$1,206
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$10,875
Realized+$1,600
Unrealized−$1,206
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses155 / 63
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions461
Markets (closed)218 / 357
History coverage1d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day3496.0
Drawdown3%
Kalshi-fit60%
Chart Positions 461 History 218 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,600
7 days+$1,600
14 days+$1,600
30 days+$1,600
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Zelenskyy and Putin not meet before 2027? Yes 84¢ 84¢ $76 $76 −$0 (-1%)
Will the Democrats win the Florida Senate race in 2026? No 81¢ 81¢ $64 $64 +$0 (+1%)
Will Jared Hudson be the Republican nominee for Senate in Alabama? No 95¢ 77¢ $73 $60 −$14 (-19%)
Israel x Hezbollah diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? No 96¢ 95¢ $60 $60 −$0 (-1%)
Will Phil Weiser win the 2026 Colorado Governor Democratic primary election? No 82¢ 67¢ $71 $57 −$13 (-19%)
Will Russia enter Dopropillia by June 30? No 97¢ 95¢ $58 $57 −$1 (-1%)
Will Sweden reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 93¢ 93¢ $56 $56 +$0 (+0%)
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,700 in June? No 95¢ 92¢ $57 $55 −$2 (-3%)
Will Karen Bass win the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles Mayoral Election by 5–10%? Yes 96¢ 97¢ $54 $55 +$0 (+1%)
Will Goldman Sachs (GS) Q2 investment banking fees be above $2.35B? Yes 95¢ 90¢ $57 $54 −$3 (-5%)
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? Yes 91¢ 88¢ $55 $54 −$1 (-3%)
Will Saudi Arabia join the Abraham Accords before 2027? No 91¢ 86¢ $57 $54 −$3 (-6%)
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by June 30? No 94¢ 93¢ $54 $54 −$1 (-1%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 88¢ 84¢ $56 $53 −$3 (-5%)
World Cup: Most Player Goals Record Broken? No 96¢ 95¢ $53 $52 −$1 (-1%)
FISA Section 702 reauthorized before it expires? Yes 93¢ 95¢ $51 $52 +$1 (+2%)
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30? No 82¢ 84¢ $49 $51 +$2 (+3%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 93¢ 83¢ $56 $50 −$6 (-10%)
Will USD be between 1.6M and 1.7M Iranian rials on June 30? No 86¢ 84¢ $51 $50 −$1 (-2%)
Will Silver (SI) settle at $50-$60 in June? No 89¢ 82¢ $53 $49 −$4 (-8%)
Will Nikolas Ferreira win the 2026 Minas Gerais gubernatorial election? No 98¢ 98¢ $49 $49 −$0 (-0%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $4,800 by end of June? No 94¢ 94¢ $49 $48 −$0 (-1%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? No 93¢ 74¢ $59 $47 −$12 (-21%)
Will Haley Stevens win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary? No 79¢ 77¢ $48 $46 −$2 (-3%)
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be ≥ 4.5% at the end of 2026? No 96¢ 97¢ $46 $46 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Chirayu Rana fired? Jun 12 $32 +$14 +45%
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be betwe Jun 12 $23 +$16 +68%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 18°C on June 12? Jun 12 $14 +$1 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on June 12? Jun 12 $4 +$32 +815%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 17°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 27°C on June 12? Jun 12 $10 −$2 -23%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 13? Jun 12 $58 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 32°C on June 12? Jun 12 $42 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on June 12? Jun 12 $3 $0 +7%
Will Cap launch a token by September 30, 2026? Jun 12 $3 −$1 -26%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C or higher on June 13? Jun 12 $0 +$1 +1749%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 13? Jun 12 $8 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 13? Jun 12 $9 +$27 +317%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $28 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 13? Jun 12 $41 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 27°C on June 12? Jun 12 $17 −$4 -26%
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day have the best domestic opening week in Jun 12 $1 +$2 +284%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 13? Jun 12 $0 $0 -44%
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $6 $0 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 26°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 +$12 +1417%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 86-87°F on June 12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -52%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 29°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 $0 -42%
Will Cristiano Ronaldo's national team advance the furthest at the 202 Jun 12 $3 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 13? Jun 12 $0 $0 -17%
Will Lionel Messi score 3+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $11 +$2 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 13? Jun 12 $1 $0 -12%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 80-81°F on Ju Jun 12 $52 $0 -0%
Will Croatia reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $4 $0 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026? Jun 12 $41 +$41 +99%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 $0 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 13? Jun 12 $0 +$1 +382%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 13? Jun 12 $24 −$1 -5%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on Ju Jun 12 $1 +$8 +537%
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 13? Jun 12 $2 −$1 -59%
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 39.0 and 39.4 on June 12, 2026 Jun 12 $1 +$19 +1683%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 12? Jun 12 $3 +$12 +382%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C on June 12? Jun 12 $28 +$15 +55%
Will France reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $26 +$51 +196%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 13? Jun 12 $1 $0 +38%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 +$4 +277%
World Cup: Total Tournament Goals O/U 264.5 Jun 12 $34 −$5 -14%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 16? Jun 12 $49 +$26 +54%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 28°C on June 12? Jun 12 $42 −$2 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 24°C on June 13? Jun 12 $3 +$27 +1071%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 13? Jun 12 $4 $0 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 12? Jun 12 $6 +$1 +13%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $700 in June? Jun 12 $3 +$16 +611%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June Jun 12 $41 +$18 +43%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 18? Jun 12 $25 +$29 +117%
World Cup: Ronaldo to Score a Free Kick? Jun 12 $5 −$4 -82%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 64% −$794
weather 14% +$235
world 10% +$243
tech 5% +$260
finance 3% +$65
politics 3% +$194
sports 2% +$157
economics 0% −$1
crypto 0% +$17
culture 0% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31? SELL Yes 64¢ $38 1m
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be betwe SELL No 29¢ $2 1m
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 18°C on June 12? SELL No 6¢ $0 2m
Will Denver Nuggets win the 2027 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 6¢ $0 2m
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be betwe BUY No 25¢ $1 2m
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 92-93°F on Ju BUY Yes 12¢ $0 2m
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on June 12? SELL Yes 9¢ $0 3m
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 17°C on June 12? SELL Yes 38¢ $2 3m
Will Sam Burns win the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? SELL Yes 20¢ $6 3m
Will anyone say "God" during Rick and Morty E4 S9? BUY Yes 97¢ $29 4m
Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 8-J BUY Yes 21¢ $6 4m
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C or higher on June 12? BUY No 94¢ $28 4m
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 27°C on June 12? SELL Yes 48¢ $0 4m
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 13? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 5m
Will Mark Juncosa be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX' SELL Yes 15¢ $4 5m
Will the announcers say "Trump" during the USA vs Paraguay FIFA World BUY Yes 18¢ $5 5m
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 32°C on June 12? SELL Yes 3¢ $0 6m
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 32°C on June 12? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 6m
Will Toy Story 5 be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 73¢ $44 6m
Will Jordan Staal win the 2026 NHL Conn Smythe Trophy? BUY Yes 50¢ $9 6m
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on June 12? SELL Yes 9¢ $1 6m
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on June 12? SELL No 6¢ $1 6m
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 32°C on June 12? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 7m
Will Cap launch a token by September 30, 2026? BUY No 13¢ $3 7m
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 27°C on June 12? SELL Yes 48¢ $8 7m
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on June 12? BUY No 5¢ $1 7m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C or higher on June 13? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 7m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 13? SELL No 68¢ $0 7m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 13? SELL Yes 8¢ $1 9m
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 94¢ $15 9m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)+138.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 218 +163.8% +138.6% 71% 45% +14.2%
≤30d 218 +163.8% +138.6% 71% 45% +14.2%
≤90d 218 +163.8% +138.6% 71% 45% +14.2%
all 218 +163.8% +138.6% 71% 45% +14.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover3496.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +138.6% 45% +14.2%
10% ← realistic here +115.8% 38% +3.2%
15% +95.0% 35% -6.7%
20% +75.8% 30% -15.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10,874.91 · official $13,020.04 · 3500 history records