Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T10:10:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
51 0x5110…eed5 crypto 183 markets active 7d ago coverage 233d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$1,223 (-4%) realized −$1,223 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -50% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -56% what you keep after slip
Net edge-56%after slip
Net WR15%break-even
Win rate22%40W / 143L
Whale WR40%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$149per market
Trades / day7.9pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 233d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$3,312
tech 0% −$23
other 0% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-54.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -67.8% -70.9% 0% 0% -66.2%
≤30d 26 -65.9% -69.2% 12% 8% -69.9%
≤90d 69 -67.6% -70.7% 14% 9% -74.0%
all 183 -49.9% -54.7% 22% 15% -25.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -54.7% 15% -25.3%
10% -59.0% 11% -32.5%
15% -63.0% 9% -39.0%
20% -66.6% 7% -45.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 70% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -73% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
30% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -50% · $-wt -23% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 40% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -29% → late -71% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
7.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$71 vs −$43 · ×1.64 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.46 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

233d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,223
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses40 / 143
Whale WR (big bets)40%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)183 / 183
History coverage233d
Avg bet$149
Trades / day7.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 183 Trades
no open positions (116 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
XRP Up or Down - June 10, 5PM ET Jun 10 $7 −$6 -82%
XRP Up or Down - June 10, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 10 $8 −$3 -36%
XRP Up or Down - June 8, 2AM ET Jun 08 $1 −$1 -95%
XRP Up or Down - June 8, 1AM ET Jun 08 $8 −$5 -60%
XRP Up or Down - June 8, 12AM ET Jun 08 $3 −$3 -94%
XRP Up or Down - June 3, 2AM ET Jun 03 $56 −$53 -95%
XRP Up or Down - May 28, 2AM ET May 31 $61 −$14 -22%
XRP Up or Down - May 28, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET May 28 $15 −$12 -85%
XRP Up or Down - May 28, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET May 28 $3 −$3 -96%
XRP Up or Down - May 28, 3AM ET May 28 $31 −$15 -48%
XRP Up or Down - May 28, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET May 28 $17 −$10 -60%
XRP Up or Down - May 28, 1AM ET May 28 $41 −$3 -7%
XRP Up or Down - May 28, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET May 28 $57 −$21 -37%
XRP Up or Down - May 28, 12AM ET May 28 $162 −$24 -15%
XRP Up or Down - May 24, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET May 25 $4 −$3 -72%
XRP Up or Down - May 24, 9PM ET May 25 $7 −$3 -40%
XRP Up or Down - May 24, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET May 25 $1 $0 +11%
XRP Up or Down - May 24, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET May 25 $1 −$1 -94%
XRP Up or Down - May 22, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET May 22 $3 −$2 -64%
XRP Up or Down - May 21, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET May 22 $7 −$3 -42%
XRP Up or Down - May 21, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET May 22 $10 +$1 +9%
XRP Up or Down - May 21, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET May 22 $1 +$2 +236%
XRP Up or Down - May 21, 11PM ET May 22 $3 $0 -10%
XRP Up or Down - May 21, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET May 22 $1 −$1 -96%
XRP Up or Down - May 21, 10PM ET May 22 $9 −$2 -25%
XRP Up or Down - May 21, 9PM ET May 22 $1 −$1 -94%
XRP Up or Down - May 15, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET May 15 $2 −$2 -94%
XRP Up or Down - May 14, 10PM ET May 15 $2 $0 +7%
XRP Up or Down - May 14, 9PM ET May 15 $1 −$1 -93%
XRP Up or Down - May 14, 6PM ET May 14 $26 −$7 -26%
XRP Up or Down - May 9, 5AM ET May 09 $1 −$1 -94%
XRP Up or Down - May 9, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET May 09 $10 −$2 -16%
XRP Up or Down - May 9, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET May 09 $15 −$9 -60%
XRP Up or Down - May 9, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET May 09 $25 −$9 -36%
XRP Up or Down - May 9, 2AM ET May 09 $2 −$1 -48%
XRP Up or Down - May 9, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET May 09 $1 $0 -20%
XRP Up or Down - May 9, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET May 09 $9 −$7 -74%
XRP Up or Down - May 2, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET May 02 $13 −$7 -56%
XRP Up or Down - May 2, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET May 02 $67 −$45 -67%
XRP Up or Down - May 2, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET May 02 $140 −$21 -15%
XRP Up or Down - May 2, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET May 02 $204 −$131 -64%
XRP Up or Down - May 2, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET May 02 $36 −$3 -7%
XRP Up or Down - May 2, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET May 02 $5 −$3 -57%
XRP Up or Down - May 2, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET May 02 $14 −$9 -67%
XRP Up or Down - May 2, 4PM ET May 02 $39 −$25 -64%
XRP Up or Down - May 2, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET May 02 $6 $0 +3%
XRP Up or Down - May 2, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET May 02 $6 +$2 +36%
XRP Up or Down - May 2, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET May 02 $7 −$2 -28%
XRP Up or Down - May 2, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET May 02 $19 −$4 -21%
XRP Up or Down - May 1, 7PM ET May 01 $16 −$15 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
XRP Up or Down - June 10, 5PM ET BUY Up 5¢ $1 6d
XRP Up or Down - June 10, 5PM ET SELL Down 83¢ $1 6d
XRP Up or Down - June 10, 5PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $1 6d
XRP Up or Down - June 10, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 4¢ $1 6d
XRP Up or Down - June 10, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 9¢ $1 6d
XRP Up or Down - June 10, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET SELL Up 85¢ $3 6d
XRP Up or Down - June 10, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $2 6d
XRP Up or Down - June 10, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET SELL Up 66¢ $2 6d
XRP Up or Down - June 10, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $1 6d
XRP Up or Down - June 10, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $1 6d
XRP Up or Down - June 10, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $1 6d
XRP Up or Down - June 10, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $1 6d
XRP Up or Down - June 10, 5PM ET BUY Up 22¢ $4 6d
XRP Up or Down - June 10, 5PM ET BUY Up 15¢ $1 6d
XRP Up or Down - June 8, 2AM ET BUY Down 24¢ $1 9d
XRP Up or Down - June 8, 1AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $1 9d
XRP Up or Down - June 8, 1AM ET BUY Up 9¢ $1 9d
XRP Up or Down - June 8, 1AM ET BUY Up 15¢ $1 9d
XRP Up or Down - June 8, 1AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $1 9d
XRP Up or Down - June 8, 1AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $1 9d
XRP Up or Down - June 8, 1AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $1 9d
XRP Up or Down - June 8, 1AM ET SELL Down 48¢ $1 9d
XRP Up or Down - June 8, 1AM ET SELL Up 58¢ $1 9d
XRP Up or Down - June 8, 1AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $1 9d
XRP Up or Down - June 8, 1AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $1 9d
XRP Up or Down - June 8, 12AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 9d
XRP Up or Down - June 8, 12AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 9d
XRP Up or Down - June 8, 12AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 9d
XRP Up or Down - June 8, 12AM ET BUY Up 11¢ $1 9d
XRP Up or Down - June 3, 2AM ET BUY Down 2¢ $1 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1868 history records