Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T03:49:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
51 0x5112…0ed9 other 46 markets active 0h ago coverage 601d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$382 (-16%) realized −$382 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate41%19W / 27L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$53per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$14est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$160
7 days−$353
14 days−$423
30 days−$395
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 57% +$10
sports 41% −$499
politics 1% +$32
world 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-18.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 -29.0% -35.8% 29% 25% -31.4%
≤30d 41 -13.1% -21.4% 39% 37% -26.7%
≤90d 41 -13.1% -21.4% 39% 37% -26.7%
all 46 -10.3% -18.8% 41% 37% -26.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.8% 37% -26.9%
10% -26.6% 35% -33.9%
15% -33.7% 33% -40.3%
20% -40.2% 24% -46.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -19% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +20% → late -41% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$31 · ×0.64 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.45 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

601d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$382
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses19 / 27
Est. fees paid−$14
Open positions0
Markets (closed)46 / 46
History coverage601d
Avg bet$53
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 46 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $101 −$58 -57%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 26 $122 −$122 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $101 −$12 -11%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $10 +$3 +32%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $101 +$20 +20%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $20 +$8 +42%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 23 $20 −$12 -61%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Korea Republic to score first vs. Czechia? Jun 23 $42 −$42 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 23 $27 −$7 -25%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 23 $70 −$70 -100%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 23 $221 −$109 -50%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $101 −$2 -2%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $201 +$19 +10%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $50 +$24 +48%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $20 −$14 -67%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $20 $0 -0%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $10 +$9 +90%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $10 $0 -4%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $10 $0 -2%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $51 −$2 -3%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $51 +$34 +67%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $51 +$31 +62%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10 +$6 +57%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $20 −$1 -5%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $20 −$1 -3%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $10 +$9 +93%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $10 +$10 +97%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $101 +$44 +44%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $10 +$8 +78%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $10 +$9 +86%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $130 +$66 +50%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 13 $10 −$7 -67%
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO5) Jun 12 $203 −$203 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $66 +$29 +44%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) Nov 01 $190 +$13 +7%
LoL: KT Rolster vs CTBC Flying Oyster (BO5) Oct 29 $100 −$84 -84%
Will Bilibili Gaming win LoL Worlds 2024? Mar 24 $41 −$41 -100%
Will Donald Trump win the popular vote in the 2024 Presidential Electi Nov 06 $18 +$32 +181%
Will T1 win LoL Worlds 2024? Nov 02 $11 +$7 +61%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 23¢ $43 3m
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 52¢ $101 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 63¢ $90 13h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 65¢ $101 20h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 46¢ $102 26h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 75¢ $10 37h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 60¢ $20 37h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 83¢ $101 37h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 92¢ $29 47h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $20 2d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 66¢ $99 2d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 66¢ $101 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $100 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $100 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 67¢ $50 3d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 23¢ $7 4d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 69¢ $20 4d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $20 4d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $20 4d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 38¢ $10 5d
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 52¢ $10 5d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 46¢ $8 5d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 57¢ $10 5d
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 57¢ $10 5d
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 61¢ $10 5d
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 58¢ $10 5d
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 61¢ $10 5d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 48¢ $49 6d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 48¢ $51 6d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 59¢ $51 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 111 history records