Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T22:54:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

51 0x511b…f6da sports 13 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover

Total PnL +$638 (+22%) realized +$94 · open +$544

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +51% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +26% what you keep after slip

Net edge+26%after slip

Net WR83%break-even

Win rate83%5W / 1L

Drawdown32%max

Avg bet$218per market

Trades / day13.0pace

Fees−$26est.

Kalshi-fit69%portable

Net worth$2,194now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +83%

net ROI/market (all)+36.4%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	6	+50.8%	+36.4%	83%	83%	+39.1%
≤30d	6	+50.8%	+36.4%	83%	83%	+39.1%
≤90d	6	+50.8%	+36.4%	83%	83%	+39.1%
all	6	+50.8%	+36.4%	83%	83%	+39.1%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover13.0 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to20%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+36.4%	83%	+39.1%
10%	+23.4%	67%	+25.8%
15%	+11.5%	67%	+13.7%
20%	+0.5%	67%	+2.5%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 44% · top 2 64% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +54% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +51% · $-wt +54% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$165 vs −$200 · ×0.83 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×4.13 per $1 lost it wins $4.13

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$2,194

Realized+$94

Unrealized+$544

Win rate (resolved)83%

Wins / losses5 / 1

Est. fees paid−$26

Open positions7

Markets (closed)6 / 13

History coverage1d

Avg bet$218

Trades / day13.0

Drawdown32%

Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 7 History 6 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Spread: England (-1.5)	England	68¢	92¢	$400	$541	+$141 (+35%)
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 1.5	Over	68¢	100¢	$300	$441	+$141 (+47%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27?	Yes	54¢	90¢	$250	$414	+$164 (+66%)
Croatia vs. Ghana: Both Teams to Score	Yes	47¢	100¢	$150	$319	+$169 (+113%)
Harry Kane: 1+ goals	Yes	63¢	100¢	$200	$317	+$117 (+59%)
Panama vs. England: England O/U 2.5	Over	59¢	26¢	$250	$110	−$140 (-56%)
Spread: England (-2.5)	England	45¢	23¢	$100	$51	−$49 (-49%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26?	Jun 27	$101	+$20	+20%
Egypt vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score	Jun 27	$102	+$131	+129%
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5	Jun 27	$253	+$171	+67%
Spread: Belgium (-2.5)	Jun 27	$305	+$362	+119%
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 3.5	Jun 27	$203	+$142	+70%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26?	Jun 27	$204	−$200	-98%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Spread: England (-2.5)	BUY England	45¢	$102	1h
Croatia vs. Ghana: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	47¢	$152	1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27?	BUY Yes	54¢	$253	1h
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 1.5	BUY Over	68¢	$303	1h
Harry Kane: 1+ goals	BUY Yes	63¢	$202	1h
Panama vs. England: England O/U 2.5	BUY Over	59¢	$253	2h
Spread: England (-1.5)	BUY England	68¢	$404	2h
Egypt vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	43¢	$102	20h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26?	BUY Yes	83¢	$101	20h
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 3.5	BUY Over	58¢	$203	20h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26?	BUY Yes	37¢	$204	20h
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5	BUY Over	59¢	$253	20h
Spread: Belgium (-2.5)	BUY Belgium	45¢	$305	20h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,194.06 · official $2,194.06 (match) · 18 history records