Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T12:16:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
51 0x511c…6c11 sports 15 markets active 2h ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$462 (-34%) realized −$460 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate38%5W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$89per market
Trades / day9.5pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$267now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 52% −$166
sports 48% −$304
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-27.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -20.0% -27.6% 38% 38% -49.5%
≤30d 13 -20.0% -27.6% 38% 38% -49.5%
≤90d 13 -20.0% -27.6% 38% 38% -49.5%
all 13 -20.0% -27.6% 38% 38% -49.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -27.6% 38% -49.5%
10% -34.6% 38% -54.3%
15% -40.9% 38% -58.7%
20% -46.7% 38% -62.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 56% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -44% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -20% · $-wt -44% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +73% → late -100% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$59 vs −$96 · ×0.62 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.39 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$267
Realized−$460
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses5 / 8
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions2
Markets (closed)13 / 15
History coverage2d
Avg bet$89
Trades / day9.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 13 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Yes 61¢ 60¢ $200 $198 −$2 (-1%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Yes 57¢ 56¢ $69 $68 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $186 −$182 -98%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $82 −$82 -100%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $101 −$101 -100%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 18 $102 −$100 -98%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $101 −$100 -99%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $51 −$50 -98%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 18 $30 +$28 +93%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $31 +$44 +146%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $101 +$74 +73%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $81 +$93 +114%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $51 +$58 +114%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $101 −$100 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 57¢ $70 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $202 3h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 19¢ $51 10h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 19¢ $51 11h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 24¢ $84 13h
Spread: Canada (-1.5) BUY Qatar 45¢ $102 14h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $51 16h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 51¢ $101 21h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $31 21h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 45¢ $51 23h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $101 26h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 44¢ $51 26h
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY Colombia 51¢ $30 34h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 40¢ $31 37h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 55¢ $101 45h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY DR Congo 46¢ $81 45h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 46¢ $51 46h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $101 47h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $266.84 · official $266.85 (match) · 25 history records