Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T14:25:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

51
0x511f…cbe1
other · 313 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$140,608 -67%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$98,181 · open −$48,374
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$1,727
Realized−$98,181
Unrealized−$48,374
Win rate (resolved)11%
Wins / losses13 / 103
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$348
Open positions499
Markets (closed)116 / 313
History coverage2d
Avg bet$671
Trades / day1662.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%
Chart Positions 499 History 116 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$98,181
7 days−$98,181
14 days−$98,181
30 days−$98,181
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? Yes 4¢ 80¢ $4 $89 +$85 (+1993%)
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 3¢ 34¢ $8 $87 +$80 (+1005%)
Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 5.0% and 6.0%? Yes 10¢ 21¢ $33 $70 +$36 (+109%)
Will Anthropic have the best AI Agent at the end of June 2026? Yes 3¢ 68¢ $3 $68 +$64 (+1858%)
Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Yes 1¢ 8¢ $5 $41 +$36 (+657%)
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 3¢ 8¢ $14 $34 +$20 (+147%)
Will Aryna Sabalenka win the 2026 Women’s US Open? Yes 1¢ 26¢ $2 $33 +$31 (+1609%)
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo play for the Miami Heat in 2026-27? Yes 3¢ 63¢ $1 $27 +$26 (+1853%)
Will Mauricio Cardenas win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $1,397 $20 −$1,377 (-99%)
Will Enrique Peñalosa win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $1,397 $20 −$1,377 (-99%)
Will Juan Daniel Oviedo win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $1,397 $20 −$1,377 (-99%)
Will Carlos Felipe Córdoba win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $1,397 $20 −$1,377 (-99%)
Will David Luna Sánchez win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $1,397 $20 −$1,377 (-99%)
Will Luis Gilberto Murillo win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $1,397 $20 −$1,377 (-99%)
Will Daniel Quintero win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $1,397 $20 −$1,377 (-99%)
Will Juan Carlos Pinzón win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $1,397 $20 −$1,377 (-99%)
Will Juan Manuel Galán win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $1,397 $20 −$1,377 (-99%)
Will Claudia López win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $1,397 $20 −$1,377 (-99%)
Will Roy Barreras win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $1,397 $20 −$1,377 (-99%)
Will Gustavo Bolívar win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $1,397 $20 −$1,377 (-99%)
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 20¢ 62¢ $6 $19 +$13 (+212%)
Will Vicky Dávila win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $1,207 $17 −$1,190 (-99%)
Will Yonhy Lescano win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $681 $17 −$665 (-98%)
Will Fiorella Molinelli win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $681 $17 −$665 (-98%)
Will Roberto Chiabra win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $681 $17 −$665 (-98%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Lando Norris win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 12 $168 −$168 -100%
Will UMich Consumer Sentiment be between 49.0 and 51.9 in June? Jun 12 $15 −$11 -71%
Will UMich Consumer Sentiment be between 46.0 and 48.9 in June? Jun 12 $13 −$7 -54%
Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking be the best AI model on June 13, 2026? Jun 12 $517 −$365 -71%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on Jun 12 $1,193 −$496 -42%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $3.0T and $3.5T at market close on Jun 12 $1,664 −$1,572 -94%
Will Charles Leclerc win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 12 $178 −$178 -100%
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be less Jun 12 $214 −$164 -76%
Will Dylan Harper win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 12 $1,014 −$1,011 -100%
Will OG Anunoby win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 12 $1,465 −$1,329 -91%
Will Karl-Anthony Towns win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 12 $1,364 −$1,291 -95%
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 12 $679 −$71 -10%
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 12 $137 −$135 -99%
Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 12 $169 −$169 -100%
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 12 $168 −$168 -100%
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be at le Jun 12 $1,275 −$1,242 -97%
Will Avengers: Doomsday be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 12 $1,035 −$1,009 -98%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $23 −$23 -99%
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele Jun 12 $338 −$279 -82%
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 8 and June 14, 2026? Jun 12 $51 −$32 -62%
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 15 and June 21, 2026? Jun 12 $30 +$144 +483%
Total Internet Blackout in Iran by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $75 +$42 +56%
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be betwe Jun 12 $1,112 −$990 -89%
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be less Jun 12 $917 −$791 -86%
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 12 $2,390 −$1,775 -74%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on Jun 12 $1,188 −$791 -67%
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be betwe Jun 12 $238 −$219 -92%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $126 −$118 -93%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $202 −$201 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $58,000 and $60,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $202 −$202 -100%
Will The MongolZ win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 12 $3,985 −$3,976 -100%
Will SpaceX's market cap be less than $1.0T at market close on IPO day Jun 12 $1,421 −$1,416 -100%
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be betwe Jun 12 $387 +$282 +73%
Will South Korea win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $790 −$713 -90%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.0T and $1.5T at market close on Jun 12 $1,402 −$1,175 -84%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on Jun 12 $955 −$462 -48%
Will PARIVISION win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 12 $25 −$1 -3%
Will Legacy win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 12 $2,060 −$2,049 -100%
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be betwe Jun 12 $47 +$76 +162%
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be betwe Jun 12 $663 −$430 -65%
Will BetBoom win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 12 $1,167 −$1,122 -96%
Will Natus Vincere win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 12 $4,799 −$4,773 -100%
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 12 $4,413 −$4,371 -99%
Will FUT win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 12 $4,549 −$4,499 -99%
Will MOUZ win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 12 $4,518 −$4,456 -99%
Will G2 win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 12 $3,958 −$3,949 -100%
Will Aurora win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 12 $2,469 −$2,438 -99%
Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 8-J Jun 12 $14 +$4 +29%
Will 50-74 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 8-June 14? Jun 12 $17 −$15 -88%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $10 +$90 +914%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 42% −$87,694
politics 19% −$17,831
sports 12% −$25,569
world 10% −$1,131
tech 8% −$6,558
culture 5% −$3,841
finance 2% −$3,478
crypto 1% −$454
economics 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem SELL Yes 68¢ $4 4m
Will "Choosin' Texas - Ella Langley" be the #1 song on US Spotify this SELL Yes 16¢ $2 8m
Will Sebastian Aho win the 2026 NHL Conn Smythe Trophy? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 14m
Will "Choosin' Texas - Ella Langley" be the #1 song on US Spotify this SELL Yes 17¢ $2 14m
Will another candidate win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential SELL Yes 0¢ $1 20m
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election SELL Yes 0¢ $1 20m
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election SELL Yes 0¢ $1 21m
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election SELL Yes 0¢ $0 21m
Will SpaceX's market cap be at least $3.5T at market close on IPO day? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 21m
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election SELL Yes 0¢ $0 21m
Will Lando Norris win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? SELL Yes 8¢ $1 22m
Will UMich Consumer Sentiment be between 49.0 and 51.9 in June? SELL Yes 28¢ $1 24m
Will UMich Consumer Sentiment be between 49.0 and 51.9 in June? SELL Yes 20¢ $1 24m
Will UMich Consumer Sentiment be between 49.0 and 51.9 in June? SELL Yes 13¢ $1 24m
Will UMich Consumer Sentiment be between 46.0 and 48.9 in June? SELL Yes 24¢ $1 24m
Will UMich Consumer Sentiment be between 46.0 and 48.9 in June? SELL Yes 23¢ $1 24m
Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking be the best AI model on June 13, 2026? BUY No 10¢ $1 28m
Will any other model be the best AI model on June 13, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $4 28m
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 34¢ $19 32m
Will SpaceX's market cap be at least $3.5T at market close on IPO day? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 33m
Will SpaceX not IPO by December 31, 2027? SELL Yes 0¢ $3 39m
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Egypt? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 46m
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on SELL Yes 24¢ $2 52m
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on SELL Yes 23¢ $1 1h
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $3.0T and $3.5T at market close on SELL Yes 4¢ $0 1h
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $3.0T and $3.5T at market close on SELL Yes 4¢ $0 1h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Egypt? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 1h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Saudi Arabia? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Italy? SELL Yes 3¢ $0 1h
Will Nikolaj Ehlers win the 2026 NHL Conn Smythe Trophy? BUY No 96¢ $19 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-55.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 116 -50.6% -55.3% 11% 9% -92.3%
≤30d 116 -50.6% -55.3% 11% 9% -92.3%
≤90d 116 -50.6% -55.3% 11% 9% -92.3%
all 116 -50.6% -55.3% 11% 9% -92.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1662.6 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -55.3% 9% -92.3%
10% -59.6% 6% -93.0%
15% ← realistic here -63.5% 5% -93.7%
20% -67.1% 5% -94.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,727.29 · official $1,720.14 (match) · 3500 history records