Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T20:14:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
51 0x5127…de1e sports 431 markets active 2h ago coverage 116d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$3,038 (-6%) realized −$3,035 · open −$3
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate43%184W / 245L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$109per market
Trades / day4.0pace
Fees−$324est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$297now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$572
7 days−$1,075
14 days−$244
30 days−$1,239
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 61% −$3,695
other 37% +$588
crypto 1% +$73
world 1% −$159
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-11.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 34 -10.7% -19.2% 50% 50% -26.2%
≤30d 105 +4.4% -5.5% 45% 45% -19.1%
≤90d 352 -2.9% -12.1% 43% 42% -17.1%
all 429 -2.1% -11.4% 43% 43% -15.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.4% 43% -15.7%
10% -19.9% 42% -23.8%
15% -27.6% 41% -31.2%
20% -34.7% 39% -37.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$123 vs −$105 · ×1.17 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

116d coverage
Net worth$297
Realized−$3,035
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses184 / 245
Est. fees paid−$324
Open positions2
Markets (closed)429 / 431
History coverage116d
Avg bet$109
Trades / day4.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 429 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Yes 75¢ 74¢ $200 $199 −$1 (-1%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 232 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $507 −$500 -99%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $103 −$100 -97%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $306 +$528 +173%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $203 −$200 -99%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $205 −$200 -98%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $101 −$100 -99%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 16 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $103 −$100 -98%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 16 $205 −$200 -98%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $102 +$111 +109%
Spread: Norway (-2.5) Jun 16 $101 −$100 -99%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $102 −$100 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $201 +$49 +24%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 15 $101 +$55 +55%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $204 +$462 +226%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $203 +$175 +86%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $101 +$54 +53%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $102 +$103 +101%
Spread: Türkiye (-2.5) Jun 14 $201 +$29 +14%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $101 +$55 +55%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $307 −$300 -98%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 14 $102 −$33 -32%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $101 +$46 +46%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $102 +$111 +109%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $503 −$500 -100%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $101 −$100 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $102 +$107 +105%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $101 +$24 +24%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $202 −$200 -99%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $202 −$200 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $101 +$44 +44%
Spread: Mexico (-2.5) Jun 11 $201 +$56 +28%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 Jun 11 $301 +$49 +16%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 11 $102 −$100 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 220.5 Jun 11 $101 +$65 +65%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 Nigeria? Jun 10 $10 +$81 +786%
England vs. Costa Rica: O/U 4.5 Jun 10 $101 +$25 +25%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 10 $101 +$38 +37%
Exact Score: England 3 - 1 Costa Rica? Jun 10 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Costa Rica? Jun 10 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: England 2 - 0 Costa Rica? Jun 10 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: England 1 - 0 Costa Rica? Jun 10 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 Nigeria? Jun 10 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 0 Nigeria? Jun 10 $10 −$10 -97%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 10 $101 +$58 +57%
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) Jun 10 $101 −$100 -99%
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 1 Venezuela? Jun 10 $103 −$100 -98%
Spread: Armenia (-1.5) Jun 09 $101 +$42 +42%
Spread: Hungary (-1.5) Jun 09 $101 +$84 +83%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 75¢ $201 2h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $507 8h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $103 8h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes $103 18h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 28¢ $102 20h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 54¢ $203 31h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 42¢ $203 35h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 18¢ $205 35h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Jordan 56¢ $101 40h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Algeria 58¢ $101 2d
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $103 2d
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $205 2d
Spread: Norway (-2.5) BUY Iraq 63¢ $101 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 34¢ $102 2d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 47¢ $102 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $101 3d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 80¢ $201 3d
Spread: Spain (-3.5) BUY Cabo Verde 64¢ $101 3d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 30¢ $204 4d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 53¢ $203 4d
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $204 4d
Spread: Türkiye (-2.5) BUY Australia 87¢ $201 4d
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? SELL Yes 15¢ $70 4d
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $102 4d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 68¢ $101 4d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $503 5d
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Germany 49¢ $102 5d
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $102 5d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $101 5d
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $102 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $297.42 · official $297.42 (match) · 671 history records